"That which brought us to this point, will no longer take us forward," President Toomas Hendrik Ilves declared in his Independence Day speech, eleven years ago now.

This message attracted both attention and a nodding in agreement, but, unfortunately, not a deeper reflection on what the force which had brought us that far was, and where new strength to move forward could be found. So we continued as we were.

A symbolic summation of this national progress arrived just a little over a year and a half later, from then-Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas, who announced that "Estonia has entered an age of fine-tuning." Again, everyone agreed, and we continued contentedly on our way.

It is true, when looking back at the three decades since the restoration of independence, we can see a success story: Estonia has transformed, almost beyond recognition.

In terms of national wealth, we have grown twenty-fold: From two billion euros (X) to forty billion — an average of ten percent per year.

We got accustomed to this growth, and molded our lives around it — if we couldn't afford this or that thing this year, surely we would be able to next year.

This new generation, born and raised in an independent Estonia, has never known anything different.

It's like we left an exhilarating sleigh ride behind us.

Of course, a parallel like that is arbitrary, yet far from devoid of meaning.

During the Singing Revolution, a long-repressed resentment burst forth, pushing our national "sleigh" to the top of the hill.

Then once the shackles were shattered, we pushed this sleigh, together, as one, forgetting old squabbles and believing in a shared freedom.

This sleigh, driven by a hunger for freedom, gained momentum thanks to new business opportunities, political reunification with Europe and the West, and convergence within the common market.

The bold young sleigh drivers didn't shy away from even the steepest of descents.

Yet now, for the third year in a row, the economy is stagnating, the sleigh has ground to a halt, while even the snow around it has melted.

But inside the sleigh remains the prevailing expectation that the momentum will come back; we just need to sit quietly and wait for crises to fade away, demand a recovery in target markets, and that the economy grows again.

Similar strains of wishful thinking can be heard from the politicians and analysts alike; from the market, and on television.

This represents a grand self-deception, however, rooted in the success years — it is not expectation but collective effort which will get us out of this middle-income trap.

We must start rowing together again — to borrow Marju Lauristin's apt turn of phrase — nothing will happen by itself, any more.

Plus even that is not enough; we must set our course and grasp where we are, where we want to go, and what is needed to get there.

This, in turn, means we must start making decisions and take back responsibility for our own future.

Yes, there was the Covid crisis, there is now a security crisis, and more crises to come, but our future remains ours to create, and not anyone else's.

If this mindset, rooted as it is in the legacy of the long sleigh ride, does not change — not just at the level of government and business, but in the broader social consciousness too — we will be adrift in a pond of mediocrity, and slowly sinking even there.

Four years ago, we set the ambitious goal of raising Estonia's labor productivity to 110 percent of the EU average by 2035.
Yet since then, it has instead declined — from 84 percent to lower than 78 percent.

We have plenty of smart explanations for why this is so, but not a single person held accountable. And unfortunately, there hasn't been a substantive plan for how to reach the goal.

Let us do it another way, now — plug this goal with determined and concrete actions, and align our other decisions with that.

An approach of this kind could mark the start of a change in mindset — both in the public and private sectors.

Another inevitable by-product of the earlier rapid and spontaneous development is a structural inefficiency.

Almost every remotely viable entity has had the chance to grow and develop without much regard for internal organization or resource efficiency. Growth has been prioritized over frugality.

In this newly intensified competitive environment, this is no longer sustainable, as capital and other resources have to be concentrated and utilized with purpose and efficiency. Those who cannot manage that, must step aside.

It would not be surprising if, ten years from now, we had half as many businesses and public sector institutions as we do now. And development like this should be encouraged and accelerated.

Thinking more boldly, we should even consider a greater international division of labor — including in the public sector.

Among the structural problems lies also the bloated regulatory environment, which must be streamlined and adapted to the needs and capacities of a small country.

It must be taken on board that the legal jungle built up over the years serves to burden not only entrepreneurs and citizens, but has also become unmanageable for its own administrators.

A third fundamental shift which must accompany a new economic growth strategy is the ability to make strategic choices.

Whereas in a phase of rapid, expansive growth, any well-executed effort led to success, in the current conditions of heightened competition we must focus on doing the right things, meaning making choices.

A brief glance around at our grand development plans reveals the fact that trying to achieve dozens and dozens of brilliant objectives is predictably hopeless.

No wonder these plans are useless, with real decisions driven instead by constant scrambling through crises and arbitrary political whim.

The result is an erratic development and fragmented resources, accompanied by growing dissatisfaction with the absence of leadership.

With that, to achieve real outcomes, it is vital that we define our true political priorities — based on our competitive advantages — and retain them unchanged for as long as is needed to reach the goals.

It is not overdoing it to aim for a five- to tenfold reduction in the number of priorities — redirecting the freed-up energy toward coordinated and purposeful achievement of what remains.

It is regrettable that over the past decade we have seemingly resigned ourselves to external destiny and accepted a stagnant economic path, while hoping for the good times to return all on their own.

It is time to change our attitudes and, borrowing from history, feel ourselves as masters, free and independent, of our own destiny.

Jaak Aaviksoo is a former University of Tartu rector, former Tallinn University of Technology (TalTech) director, and former government minister.

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