Norstat ratings: Isamaa loses more ground over past week

Although the political party Isamaa remains the most popular, its support dropped by 1.5 percentage points over the past week and has declined by a total of 5.1 percentage points over the past four weeks, according to a survey conducted by the Institute for Societal Studies and the polling firm Norstat.
According to the latest results, 26.6 percent of eligible voters support Isamaa, 18.7 percent support the Reform Party and 16.8 percent support the Center Party. Compared to Isamaa, support for the other parties remained relatively unchanged over the past week.
Trailing the top three are the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) with 15.7 percent, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 10.6 percent, Parempoolsed with 5.4 percent and Eesti 200 with 3.6 percent.
In total, 22.3 percent of respondents support the coalition parties, while 69.7 percent support opposition parties.
Once a month, in addition to party preferences, Norstat also asks respondents for their opinions on the government and the prime minister's performance. Based on the latest results, 28 percent of respondents believe the government is doing its job very well or rather well, while 65 percent think the government is doing rather poorly or very poorly. Twenty-three percent approve of how Kristen Michal is handling his role as prime minister, whereas 55 percent disapprove.
The most recent aggregate results cover the survey period from March 24 to April 21 and include responses from 4,001 eligible Estonian citizens.
When presenting the results, the Institute for Societal Studies and Norstat focus on a four-week rolling average, ensuring a sample size of at least 4,000 people. Voters without a party preference are excluded when calculating the relative support percentages for each party. The maximum margin of error depends on the size of the largest group.
In this survey, Isamaa supporters formed the largest group (26.6 percent), yielding a margin of error of ±1.7 percent. For other parties, the margin is smaller — for example, ±0.72 percent for Eesti 200. Calculating party support percentages this way helps smooth out fluctuations in individual polls that may result from greater statistical error or short-term events.
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Editor: Mirjam Mäekivi, Marcus Turovski