On April 14, a narrow vote – run for the third time – saw the formation of the Reform, Eesti 200, SDE and Isamaa coalition when former Mayor Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) lost a motion of no-confidence. This led to the collapse of the Center-SDE city government.

ERR radio news editor Indrek Kiisler said, in hindsight, the process was not entirely above board.

"From what I have heard behind the scenes, the SDE and their leader Jevgeni Ossinovski had actually promised Center Party chair Mihhail Kõlvart that there would be no power shift, that no negotiations were happening behind his back," he said.

Deputy Mayor of Tallinn Madle Lippus (SDE) said trust in the Center Party had plummeted after it was found guilty in the Porto Franco corruption case. "That was a very symbolic decision for us. And SDE, we absolutely do not tolerate corruption in any form," she said.

"Aktuaalne kaamera" looked into what has been achieved over the last year – aside from the public bickering of deputy mayors.

The four-party coalition took office 18 months before the next local elections in October 2025.

Ousted former mayor Kõlvart sees only bad decisions: "Specialists have been let go. The decisions being made are political, there is no analysis. We never came in with the idea that we'd only be here for a year."

Journalist Indrek Kiisler said there have been no substantial changes. He believes the new city government did not get off to a flying start.

"If we are talking about a timeframe of only a year and a half, you cannot implement deep and meaningful reforms in that time. The first big mistake was that there were no concrete and clear promises about what would change in the city for the average resident and voter. They could have picked two or three solid things and focused on those," Kiisler said.

However, Delfi journalist Erik Moora disagreed.

"This kind of journalistic impatience — where are the promised changes, why isn't everything different yet? — is fine and well, but in real life, especially in a complex democratic system, changes do not happen that quickly. They happen gradually," he told "Aktuaalne kaamera."

Madle Lippus stressed that the new city government has focused on structural reforms. These include reorganizing child protection services and consolidating the city's sports centers under a single management structure.

"For instance, the pricing structures vary. If a resident buys a 10-time pass, they cannot use it at different sports centers. The goal is a unified, understandable, transparent, and convenient system for citizens, that is what our structural reforms are aiming for," she said.

But Kiisler questioned whether the average person would notice changes like these. "I do not think it matters to them whether a cultural center or sports hall belongs to the city district. The structure does not matter. What they want is for the place to be open and tickets to be cheap," he said.

Lippus said the city has saved around €6 million over the past year and has cut about 200 positions from the city government.

Kiisler does not consider this to be a big accomplishment. "The city government employs about 3,500 people. Sending 200 home over a year is around 5 percent. Considering how inefficient the system has been for decades, since [former Mayor] Edgar Savisaar's time, this is not a huge number. They definitely could have done more," he said.

But Erik Moora saw things more positively. "Quite a few people have recently joined the Tallinn city system who have proven themselves at the national level and are now working and performing in city governance. That is a very good sign. Previously, we had people sitting in the same roles for 15, 17, even 20 years, and those problems sat there just as long," he said.

Kiisler also believes Mayor Jevgeni Ossinovski (SDE) has not lived up to expectations. "He has not made a real impression. We do not have a strong, assertive city leader. Deputy mayors bicker, and then three days later the mayor steps in. Clearly, this has not been a success story. I predict these elections will be a disaster for him," he said.

Who will lead the next coalition?

The journalist is in no doubt that Center will win the elections. The party is historically popular in Tallinn and pollsters are also forecasting the same results. The only question left to answer is who will form the next coalition.

"If you look at the support the Center Party has among Russian-speaking residents, their win will be significant, but not enough for a majority. They'll need to choose a partner. Maybe it'll be EKRE, or maybe someone else," Kiisler speculated.

Mihhail Kõlvart has also stated that the Center Party will win the elections in Tallinn. The only question is by how much. "Of course, results can be influenced by reducing the number of polling stations, especially if you know that those stations are primarily used by Center Party supporters," Kõlvart said, referencing a recent decision to cut the number of ballot boxes around the capital.

Kõlvart is convinced that reducing the number of polling stations in Tallinn is a political move aimed at influencing the election outcome.

Erik Moora said that in previous elections, there were concerns about how the city system, entirely under Center Party control, staffed polling station committees. "In the last elections, there were questions about ballots marked similarly and very neatly, which brought a lot of votes to certain candidates," he said.

Madle Lippus said reducing the number of polling stations is certainly not a political decision. "It's a proposal the city secretary has actually been working on for several years," she said.

Kõlvart said that if the Center Party returns to power, it will have a lot of work to do. "Not initially in terms of city development, but to restore the governance system," he said.

Still, the Center Party chairman admitted that forming a coalition will depend on votes, which may not be favorable. "I am sure the current coalition, with the right math, might be ready to continue in the same style and with the same composition," Kõlvart said.

Madle Lippus said it is clear that a coalition will need to be formed after the election, and the Social Democrats are not ruling out working with the Center Party. "In our view, it doesn't make sense to categorically exclude anyone," she said.

Erik Moora believes the options are varied. "The Center Party has great potential to win in Tallinn. The question is, who will they form a coalition with? All options are actually on the table. A united coalition against the Center Party is also possible," he told the show.

The next local elections will take place on October 19 this year.

Tallinn City Council has 79 seats and 40 are needed for a majority.

Polling by Norstat and MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut shows Center would claim 32 seats in Tallinn city council, followed by Reform (15), Isamaa (14), SDE (12) and EKRE (6). Eesti 200 is unlikely to poll high enough to be on the council.

Non-parliamentary parties Parempoolsed, KOOS, the Greens, and the Estonian nationalists and conservatives would also fail to win seats.

What the results show is that Center will not win a majority, something it often did with ease until the last election in 2021.

So while it appears to be the most popular party, it will need to form a coalition with others.

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