If the elections were held tomorrow, Norstat estimates that the Center Party would secure 33 seats in Tallinn's 79-member city council. They would be followed by the Social Democrats with 14 seats, Isamaa and the Reform Party with 13 seats each and finally EKRE with six mandates.

For the Center Party, this would mean five fewer seats in the council compared to the 2021 elections. Meanwhile, both the Social Democrats and Isamaa would improve their positions, each gaining eight seats. The Reform Party and EKRE would each lose two mandates.

Parempoolsed would be left out of the council, with their support in Tallinn estimated by Norstat at 5 percent. Eesti 200, which won seven mandates in the last elections, would also be excluded with just 2 percent support.

Of the possible coalitions, the most likely would involve the Center Party plus another partner. For example, the Center Party and the Social Democrats could govern together with a comfortable 47-seat majority. However, Center Party leader Mihhail Kõlvart told Delfi that he does not see himself working with the current Tallinn mayor, Jevgeni Ossinovski.

A coalition between the Center Party and Isamaa or the Center Party and the Reform Party, could also work mathematically, each holding 46 seats.

According to Norstat's May data, the Center Party and EKRE together would not achieve a majority. On the other hand, the current coalition — without Eesti 200 — could theoretically continue governing with 40 mandates.

Tartu

As has historically been the case, the Reform Party leads Norstat's May poll in Tartu, although compared to 2021, the prime minister's party would receive two fewer mandates — 17 seats — in the city's 49-member council.

Isamaa follows in popularity with 11 mandates and the Social Democrats with nine. Both have significantly increased their support compared to 2021 — Isamaa by six seats and the Social Democrats by four.

According to Norstat's May data, EKRE would win seven mandates and the Center Party five. This would be one less than in the previous election for EKRE and one more for the Center Party.

Eesti 200 would also fail to enter the council in Tartu, despite having secured eight seats there in 2021.

Mathematically, the current coalition of the Reform Party, Isamaa and the Social Democrats could continue, holding a broad majority with 37 seats in the 49-member council. A coalition between the Reform Party and Isamaa, with 28 seats, or the Reform Party and the Social Democrats, with 26 seats, would also be possible.

A coalition without the Reform Party could technically be formed, but the only realistic option would require cooperation between Isamaa, the Social Democrats and the Center Party, yielding a razor-thin majority of 25 seats.

Pärnu

In Pärnu, the balance of power is fairly even, but Isamaa is the most popular party, which Norstat estimates could secure 11 mandates in the 39-member city council — five more than in the previous election. Isamaa would be followed by EKRE with nine mandates, a loss of one seat compared to the last election.

The electoral alliance Pärnu Ühendab, which included Pärnu Mayor Romek Kosenkranius, who joined the Reform Party earlier this year, would also lose one mandate and secure eight seats in the council.

According to Norstat's May estimate, the Reform Party would lose four seats and take five mandates, while the Center Party would lose one seat and hold four. Additionally, the Social Democrats would manage to enter the council with two mandates.

In terms of coalitions, the current alliance could mathematically continue: Pärnu Ühendab, Isamaa and the Reform Party would together hold 24 of the 39 seats.

A two-party coalition between Isamaa and EKRE would also be possible, with a narrow majority of 20 seats. Several other combinations could also be viable, depending on how the seats are ultimately distributed.

Narva

In Narva, Norstat forecasts a resurgence for the Center Party, which, according to the May survey, could improve on its 2021 result of 10 mandates and secure 18 seats.

In Narva, known for its abundance of electoral alliances, Norstat projects that this time only seven people would enter the council through electoral lists — 12 fewer than in the previous election. Additionally, the Social Democrats would gain representation with four seats and EKRE with two.

As for coalitions, if the Center Party were indeed to secure 18 mandates, it would not need any partners in the 31-member city council.

Estonia is set to hold local government council elections in October of this year. For the first time, voting in local elections will only be possible for Estonian and EU citizens, with stateless persons also allowed to vote one last time in 2025, as part of a so-called sunset clause.

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