Estonia has been in a political crisis for quite some time now, even though it may seem at first glance that no one has noticed. Everyone acts as if things are entirely normal. And yet, nearly everyone is aware of this crisis in one way or another. It's as if it were a well-kept public secret.

To better understand the precise nature of Estonia's political situation, it helps to first glance at what's happening with our neighbors.

Parliamentary elections were held in Finland in 2023, just like in Estonia. After the elections, a four-party coalition government was formed and has remained in place ever since. The coalition consists of the National Coalition Party, the Finns Party, the Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats.

As is typically the case for governing parties, their support has declined somewhat during their time in office. When the government took office, the combined support for the coalition parties was just over 50 percent; currently, it's around 39 percent. The Finns Party has seen the largest drop in support, losing just over 8 percentage points from its voter base. Support for the remaining coalition parties has stayed roughly at the same level as in the elections.

In Sweden, elections were held a year earlier, in 2022. Afterward, a government was officially formed by the Moderate Party, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals. However, the governing coalition also reached an agreement with the Sweden Democrats, effectively making them part of the ruling bloc. At the time the government was formed, support for the coalition was just under 50 percent; currently, it stands at about 45 percent. There too, the burden of governing has eroded support for the ruling parties.

What about south of us? Latvia also held elections in 2022, and governance there has been a bit more unstable than with our northern neighbors. Following the elections, a government was formed by three parties: New Unity, the National Alliance and the United List. That government lasted until September 2023.

When it took office, the combined support for the ruling parties was around 40 percent; by the time it fell apart, it had dropped to around 35 percent. A new government was then formed — this time a minority government — comprising New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers and the Progressives.

Support for this new government when it took office in September 2023 was just over 41 percent, but has since dropped by about 10 percentage points. Voters' tolerance levels in Latvia seem higher than in the Nordic countries or Western Europe. The level of support that recently led to the collapse of the German government and early elections hasn't, at least for now, shaken this Latvian government.

So how does Estonia's current situation look by comparison? Estonia held elections in 2023, and the combined support for the Reform Party, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats — who formed the post-election government — was a respectable 53.8 percent.

When Kaja Kallas stepped down [as prime minister and Reform Party head] and handed the position over to Kristen Michal last summer, the coalition's combined support was just over 35 percent, and it had hovered around that level for more than half a year. After the prime ministerial handover, support for the coalition parties continued to decline, falling to about 30 percent just before the recent cabinet reshuffle. When the Social Democrats were excluded from the coalition during that reshuffle, support for the ruling parties dropped to about 20 percent, where it has remained for the past couple of months.

Ruling has come at a high cost for both the Reform Party and Eesti 200, with voters punishing them for their actions — and inaction. Eesti 200's support has plunged by a factor of three or four, while support for the Reform Party has nearly halved. So far, there are no signs of improvement.

With the exclusion of the Social Democrats, the only party that voters had not punished was pushed out of government, leaving behind the two parties that have taken the hardest hits. Two parties that have yet to be forgiven — and there's no indication that forgiveness is coming anytime soon.

By way of comparison, during Jüri Ratas' second government — made up of the Center Party, Isamaa and EKRE — and throughout Kaja Kallas' first and second governments, the ruling parties' combined support consistently held between 40 and 50 percent. The current crisis began to take shape in the second half of 2023 when support for the Reform Party and Eesti 200 collapsed due to their own missteps — something they have yet to recover from.

It's expected that governing leads to lower support, but the situation Estonia's ruling parties find themselves in now is something extraordinary. About 20 percent of voters support the government parties, while the opposition enjoys the backing of around 80 percent of the electorate. And this is no longer a temporary dip — it's a stable state in our party system.

In a sense, this is the darkest hour for Estonian democracy in recent times. A government with such low support inevitably struggles to govern effectively, since whatever it does is likely to clash with the views of the majority of voters. This puts a strain on the moral fabric of democracy.

What's astonishing is how high the public's and voters' tolerance seems to be in Estonia. One can imagine that in many other European countries, voters would have lost their patience long ago if their government were skating on such thin ice. In fact, we likely wouldn't even see such a situation elsewhere, as political culture would compel a government with such low support to relieve itself of the burden of governing. But here, we sit and quietly wait for the next elections, appearing to accept the situation.

Those elections will come soon enough, but if we're governed until then by a coalition with only 20 or even 30 percent support, the resentment and political bitterness among the electorate may grow far more than what would be healthy for our democracy in the long term.

Why do we pretend none of this is happening? It's hard to say. But by remaining silent or looking the other way, the consequences of this crisis will eventually hit mutch harder than if we had looked the truth in the eye when the problems first started.

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