SDE inches up in the polls
The Social Democratic Party, which saw an increase in support last week, gained even more this week. At the same time, the support percentages for the top three parties in the ratings table did not change significantly over the past week.
The latest aggregate results cover the survey period from April 14 to May 11 and include responses from a total of 4,001 Estonian citizens eligible to vote.
According to the most recent data, 27.4 percent of eligible voters support Isamaa, 16.7 percent back the Center Party and 16.4 percent support the Reform Party.
Isamaa, which holds the lead, is ahead of the Center Party by 10.7 percentage points. The Reform Party trails the Center Party by just 0.3 percentage points, meaning the two parties remain virtually tied in support.
Following the top three are EKRE with 15.9 percent, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 12.2 percent, Parempoolsed with 5.6 percent and Eesti 200 with 2.7 percent. Support for the Social Democratic Party has risen by 1 percentage point over the past week and by 1.8 percentage points over the past two weeks.
A total of 19.1 percent of respondents support coalition parties, while 72.2 percent back opposition parties.
In presenting the results, the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) and the polling firm Norstat Eesti AS focused on the four-week aggregate results. This approach ensures a sample size of at least 4,000, excluding respondents without a party preference when calculating party support. The maximum margin of error depends on the proportion size of the largest group. In this survey, the largest group was Isamaa supporters (27.4 percent), with a margin of error of ±1.71 percent. For other parties, the margin of error is smaller — for instance, ±0.62 percent in the case of Eesti 200. Calculating support percentages this way helps smooth out fluctuations caused by statistical noise or short-term events in individual surveys.
Norstat conducted the surveys over four weekly periods: April 14-21, April 21-28, April 28-May 4, and May 5-11. In total, 4,001 Estonian citizens aged 18 and over participated. To ensure a representative sample, the survey used a combined method of telephone and online interviews, with the majority of responses gathered via phone. The sample data was weighted to match the demographic distribution of the voting-eligible population according to key sociodemographic indicators.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Marcus Turovski
