On Tuesday, the Reform Party and Eesti 200 rejected in parliament a proposal from the Center Party parliamentary group to hold a referendum on the future of oil shale energy. The Social Democrats, who abstained from voting, and most of the Isamaa members were not present in the chamber.

This mirrors how warnings from experts about the destructive impact of a chosen climate ideology on Estonia's energy independence fall on deaf ears. A schizophrenic situation has developed in which virtually everyone understands the seriousness of the energy problem facing us — except the government and the authorities.

Pride before a fall

Estonia has undoubtedly been progressive in its pursuit of the West, charging through the 1990s and 2000s with an enthusiasm and courage that surprised the world and earned the country a considerable degree of trust. European requirements were followed with more than German precision and the curvature of bananas was, when necessary, straightened.

No doubt some things were taken too far, but the window to Europe was thrown wide open, proving that Estonia deserved a seat at the table. Since then, however, both the surrounding environment and the conditions within our own society have changed significantly — as Toomas Hendrik Ilves once put it, what got us here won't get us where we need to go.

The behavior and role of major powers in the world have taken on a dramatically different character in the past decade and what seemed self-evident yesterday may no longer hold true today — and could even reverse tomorrow. In such circumstances, a more rational, pragmatic and perhaps even protectionist approach is needed.

It's time to admit that Estonia has set itself overly ambitious goals in energy policy, goals that are not realistically achievable. Or rather, they might technically be achievable, but the resulting problems are quite likely to exceed the tolerance limits of our economy and society.

In these kinds of "tipping point moments," it's worth reading the preamble of the Constitution, which urges Estonians to secure and develop the state so that the Estonian nation, language and culture may endure through the ages. That might sound a bit grandiose in this context, but energy independence — or dependence — is now a foundational issue that could very well determine the future of our country and our people.

This brings us to the National Energy and Climate Plan (ENMAK), which is supposed to outline how to ensure the sustainability of our country's energy system. In reality, however, the process has been reduced to rapidly adopting guidelines proposed by Europe — and often turning the dial even further.

The starting point has been international positions, but without taking into account Estonia's specific conditions and interests. What's more, there is a lack of analysis that would convince us these are scientifically sound and well-calculated decisions.

In theory, of course, Estonia can dream up all kinds of energy solutions, but reality must be tested by asking whether they are economically viable and financially feasible. A good example is the plan to electrify parking spaces at shopping centers. It would be interesting to know how many people — outside of government officials — believe that this is a reasonable requirement at this moment.

In such a situation, criticism and skepticism are entirely justified, especially when the government recently abandoned its supposedly "comprehensive and forward-looking plan" (as it was described at the time) to subsidize offshore wind farms to the tune of €2.6 billion. The plan was dropped overnight when it became clear that a pause was needed after all. It's worth recalling that even the National Audit Office had to request information from ministries through formal information requests.

There's no getting around it: we must inform Europe that Estonia does not believe it is possible to meet the target of generating 100 percent of our annual domestic electricity consumption from renewable sources by 2030. An excessively high share of non-dispatchable electricity production makes frequency regulation extremely difficult — and very, very expensive.

For those who want an example of what frequency regulation means, one can look to Spain, where voltage fluctuations likely caused tens of millions of people to lose electricity. Energy experts have long warned that dependence on solar and wind power can make the electrical grid significantly more vulnerable to outages.

Future of oil shale should be put up for referendum

It is time to let go of the mantra "we will meet every standard." Attention must also be paid to the significant shifts taking place in European politics — one recent example being France's push to ease the European Union's green regulations. This is a compelling argument for why Estonia must carefully consider the political choices it makes in energy policy and avoid undermining its own competitiveness as a country.

Based on all this, it is clear that the planned shutdown of the oil shale sector under ENMAK is unjustified and directly harmful to the Estonian people and economy. Oil shale is a national resource that belongs to all of us, yet officials are trying to dictate what may or may not be done with it.

Until there are reliable and verified alternatives in place, this sector cannot simply be destroyed. And inevitably, this is also a matter of national security, because any replacement businesses for the lost oil shale jobs should already be visibly emerging in Ida-Viru County. But there is no sign of such momentum.

Given how critical energy policy will be for Estonia's economy and the well-being of its people in the near future, it is absolutely vital that decisions are not made in haste or based on incomplete data. The previously mentioned debacle with the offshore wind farms demonstrated all too well the result of drafting such weighty decisions behind closed doors.

The coalition may have rejected the proposal to hold a referendum on the future of oil shale energy, but we will continue to apply pressure to avoid a situation where the government steers Estonia into an energy grave.

Energy independence is directly tied to our national security, because not even raising defense spending to 5 percent of GDP would save an Estonia left without electricity. Measure nine times, cut once — that goes for energy policy, too.

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