Worries over job security, social ties and identity create stress and uncertainty, harming people's mental and physical health as well as overall well-being. The long-term health effects of these issues should not be underestimated.

In Estonia, these concerns are most acute in Ida-Viru County. Compared to the rest of the country, the region sees significantly higher industrial pollution and has a median wage roughly 25 percent below the national average. These environmental and socioeconomic disparities have a deep impact on residents' health and well-being, standing in stark contrast to other parts of Estonia.

For example, in 2023, Ida-Viru County's unemployment rate was 3.4 percentage points above the national average, leaving one in ten working-age residents without a job. At the same time, life expectancy in the county was 3.2 years shorter than the national average — 75.7 years compared to 78.9. The root causes go beyond pollution, touching on broader issues of justice and equality.

Cleaner energy = better health?

The shift toward cleaner energy production can help address the environmental challenges faced by regions reliant on fossil fuels. At first glance, this transition appears to offer only benefits. However, the study finds that adapting to this shift is far from straightforward. It is hindered by long-standing socioeconomic, educational and health disparities in the region, as well as deeply rooted cultural norms.

For example, many families in Ida-Viru County depend directly on the oil shale industry for their daily livelihoods. Currently, about 5,800 people are employed in the sector. When factoring in their families and close networks, the industry's influence extends to around 16,000 people. An additional 18,000 jobs are indirectly tied to the sector.

This widespread involvement creates a feedback loop that shapes people's values and attitudes. Dependence on the oil shale industry leads residents to view it more favorably than those who have no direct connection to it.

Because employment, income, social ties and even cultural identity are intertwined with the oil shale industry, a relatively secure social and economic space has formed around it. This sense of stability has been reinforced over decades by industry-provided benefits — such as social clubs for former miners or gardening cooperatives for workers — which fostered not only professional networks but also personal friendships.

However, this seemingly secure space can reduce residents' ability to adapt to change, as their social circles' knowledge and skills are tied to the benefits the industry has provided. At the same time, in a weakened civil society, business and administrative environment, phasing out the oil shale industry could deepen social inequality. This, in turn, would negatively affect residents' physical and mental health and encourage harmful behaviors.

Population empowered

One key factor in strengthening societal resilience is an empowered population — meaning that people have the resources, knowledge and skills needed to actively participate in public life and make informed decisions. This includes access to education, healthcare, economic stability and political engagement.

That's why it's vital for the state and local governments to consistently encourage and support the development of new skills among residents, including language proficiency and vocational training. Strong local civic organizations could help bridge the gap between residents' needs and the state's capabilities. The government should also promote small businesses, with a particular focus on nurturing entrepreneurship.

At the same time, it's important to acknowledge that oil shale mining has long been a central part of many residents' identities. To ease the uncertainty and fears that come with transforming the industry, locals must be given the chance to help shape their future. New spaces and opportunities for community interaction should be created to replace the social networks once centered around the industry.

Unfortunately, empowering communities is a long-term effort that has often been overlooked in the just transition process. While the European Green Deal helps reduce environmental risks, it does not fully align with goals of social sustainability. The Just Transition Fund alone may not be sufficient to resolve deeply rooted local challenges — whether those involve language barriers, cultural norms or a lack of modern living conditions. A focus solely on retraining and job creation risks ignoring broader issues of environmental and social inequality.

Limited adaptability creates significant stress and uncertainty about the future. This is likely to have negative consequences for social well-being, mental health and health-related behavior. People who are unaccustomed to taking an active role in shaping their own lives may become discouraged and settle into passive reliance on aid. In turn, this can hinder efforts to foster new types of local entrepreneurship, as people are simply unprepared for change.

The doctoral dissertation is part of a broader research project at the University of Tartu examining how the transition to a more sustainable economic model in Ida-Viru County affects residents' health. The project aims to identify weaknesses in the region's healthcare system and develop a methodology for evidence-based monitoring of health trends in the area. This will support future forecasting and targeted interventions.

So far, findings show that the gap in life expectancy between Ida-Viru County and the Estonian average is the widest among comparable regions undergoing a just transition across Europe. Despite the perceived wealth of the oil shale sector, income disparities between Ida-Viru and the rest of Estonia are also among the highest when compared to similar European data.

Read University of Tartu health sociologist Usha Dahal's doctoral dissertation, "Health and Well-Being Inequality in Industrially Polluted Areas: The Case of Ida-Viru County, Estonia," in the University of Tartu digital archive.

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