The plan, referred to in Estonian by its abbreviation, ENMAK, runs to 2035 and is likely to be the first major matter to land on Kisel's desk after recently taking up his new post.

Einari Kisel, a professor at Tallinn University of Technology, became an adviser to the secretary general of the Ministry of Climate in mid-May. The ministry justified his appointment with the need for an expert familiar with energy at both the global and local levels.

Kisel told ERR: "I will be going over the entire content together with the department, and we'll try to get it ready for coordination by Midsummer. In fact, there are all sorts of other energy-related topics that also need to be reviewed, and with a critical eye."

As recently as last year, the Ministry of Climate planned to hold a tender for offshore wind farms, based on the assumption that Estonia's annual energy consumption would grow to 15 terawatt-hours by 2035.
However, in the coalition agreement published at the end of January, the forecast had been revised downwards, using calculations by grid operator Elering, and projecting annual consumption at 10.4 terawatt-hours by 2035.

At that time, Kisel said that even this revised plan was too optimistic, as annual electricity consumption had in fact been falling in recent years. He once again highlighted the consumption forecast as the most problematic part of ENMAK in his conversation with ERR.

"We need to look at the actual numbers and at the real developments that could emerge in the electricity and heat consumption market over the next 10 to 15 years," Kisel said. "In addition, there are many fundamental questions about how to proceed with market development so that we can achieve the most favorable electricity prices over the next decade."

The Ministry of Climate's previous calculations had also drawn criticism from the Estonian Employers' Confederation, whose commissioned analysis showed significantly more pessimistic results than those from the ministry. According to Kisel, it is still too early to tell whether that criticism will now be taken into account in the review of ENMAK.

"We are currently reviewing the draft development plan, and by the end of June we'll be ready to present it more broadly, to show what the plan looks like. But it also largely connects to the coalition agreement, which already includes some ideas," he said.

According to Kisel, many changes are needed to ENMAK, and the most important of these is to create a simple and concise summary. There are already a few hundred pages of background material, which many even concerned people won't have time to read through, so the content must be summarized very briefly, he added.

The government last week launched a special planning process and environmental impact assessment for a nuclear power plant.

The newly signed coalition agreement also states that the use of nuclear energy will be enabled for both electricity and heat production.

Kisel said he will certainly retain an advisory role in nuclear energy matters, but the section in the coalition agreement refers to drafting nuclear safety legislation. The other aspect concerns how to find a rational financing scheme for large-scale projects with very long lifespans that require significant investment.

"Paying subsidies for projects of that kind is not very reasonable. This applies to nuclear power plants, offshore wind farms, and large pumped storage facilities," Kisel said.

The expert explained that they must operate under different financing terms – the loans given for such projects must follow a different logic than for traditional plants, which typically receive loans with 15-20-year terms.

In February this year, a government plan to provide up to €2.6 billion in support for building offshore wind farms failed. The new Reform-Eesti 200 coalition agreement allows for the introduction of financial instruments under the European Clean Industry Deal, to support bringing offshore wind to market. Kisel noted that it will ultimately be up to market participants to decide whether offshore wind farms will go ahead.

"If there are attractive financing schemes, then it depends on the market participants' own assessment of whether it can compete with other producers," he said.

Kisel has previously stated that in a scenario where offshore wind farms are not due in large numbers any time soon, a new fourth electricity interconnection between Estonia and Latvia planned for Saaremaa does not seem rational, as it would not lower electricity prices in Estonia. Whether he will try to influence these plans in his new role as adviser he could not yet say, only stating that discussions are ongoing, and the outcome remains to be seen.

Kisel said he sees himself in his new role primarily as a provider of science- and market-based background information on how various changes or policy measures may affect energy market functioning.

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