Those small changes in the front line positions show that Russia is making very heavy work of its "conquering" of Ukraine, Laneman went on.

Speaking to "Ukraina Stuudio" Sunday, Laneman said: "The image that Russia is trying to project serves multiple ends [including] to convince international public opinion. It seems they have to some extent convinced the U.S. president, for example. In Russia they are harboring the belief that they are winning, but the general picture is the same as it was when the Wagner units were being used and the so-called meat-grinder tactic emerged. That same picture remains unchanged, and if we look at the map, the main activity is still in the Pokrovsk region, and toward Kramatorsk. The overall picture remains the same, and Ukraine's territory is being chewed away at meter by meter."

According to Laneman, Russia is waging a blunt and exhausting war, while it seems to have given up on major offensives.

"It seems to me that Russia has given up and no longer hopes for any large, massive, and deep breakthroughs, but instead is trying to methodically destroy settlements and positions step by step, to gain ground meter by meter. This main activity in the Pokrovsk region — if you look at the map from Finnish reserve officers — you'll see that as soon as the opportunity arises, the Russians try to form encirclement; in the southern pocket, the neck of the Ukrainian positions has become quite narrow — less than ten kilometers. But this is a methodical, hard, and I'd say a blunt war of attrition," Laneman said.

The Pokrovsk area and the direction of Kramatorsk remain of vital importance, however, Laneman said, as these are areas where Ukrainians can more easily corral their defenses.

"Buildings, and also ruined ones too, are actually easier areas to defend than, for example, open fields. Ukraine is trying to hold that area because it would open the way to Kramatorsk," Laneman continued.

In recent days, however, Russia has increased its drone and missile attacks, including the weekend's mass attack, which, according to the officer, are meant to break the Ukrainian people's will to defend.

"As a rule, the purpose of such attacks, as we've seen earlier in history, is to break the population's will to defend — to create hopelessness, fear, and to fuel those who say peace must be had at any cost. And we see those voices not just in Ukraine, but also in Estonia," Laneman went.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin last week decided to dismiss the commander-in-chief of Russian Ground Forces, Oleg Salyukov, who was "reassigned" as Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council. Salyukov was replaced by Andrei Mordvichev, who had been responsible for the central front in Donbas, and as such can be associated with the bloody siege and capture of the Donetsk oblast city of Mariupol early on in the war, and the 2023–2024 destruction of Avdiivka, also in Donetsk oblast.

Laneman counseled against reading too much into this change, however, saying: "It was an interesting replacement, but I wouldn't draw too many conclusions here, as Salyukov is after all 70 years old and the change may have been planned. Andrei Mordvichev, who took over, is younger, so perhaps it's hoped that he can speed up Russia's offensive," said Laneman.

Mordvichev's forcefulness and aggressiveness seem to be his defining traits, Laneman noted.

"He seems to be someone who doesn't choose his means and is very robust. It appears he has been successful throughout his service. His actions are likely forceful and effective. Mordvichev supports methodical destruction combined with meat-grinder assaults, and is the clearest demonstrator of that tactic. Certainly he will try to show with his new position that his appointment was justified, and will definitely try to stand out with something. I think we may see that in the coming weeks," Laneman added.

At the same time, the Russians have proposed to Ukraine the creation of a buffer zone, which, in Laneman's view, shows that Russia has lost faith in winning the war.

"At first glance, it might seem very logical, but I haven't even fully understood what these zones would look like, how deep they are, or what they involve. On the other hand, this is good news, because creating a buffer zone wouldn't be necessary if Russia could at least take those border regions — let alone all of Ukraine. In saying they plan to create a buffer zone, they are showing they don't really believe they can take those oblasts or Ukraine in its entirety. In that sense, it's good news."

According to the brigadier general, proposing this idea came off rather whimsically, as Russia has basically shot itself in the foot in its off-kilter logic – in which Russia is supposedly due to take over the easternmost Ukrainian oblasts by year-end, yet needs a buffer zone to protect it from Ukrainian incursions like that seen in Kursk from last summer.

"The first idea for Russia was likely to demonstrate to its populace that something is being done to prevent attacks on Russian border regions, but how it turned out is amusing. It shows they don't believe themselves either that they can seize Ukraine quickly and in full," said Laneman.

Russia desires to take all of the (from north to south) Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, which it amended its own constitution to claim sovereignty over in September 2022, but which it still has not achieved, save for in the case of Luhansk which is mostly currently occupied. South of there, Russia has struggled with obstacles such as higher ground around Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut, the transport hub of Pokrovsk, which continues to hold out against the invaders, and the Dniepr River, which flows through Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.

An interactive map of the Ukraine front updated in real time is here.

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