Support for the opposition Reform Party increased from 30 to 32 percent, with senior coalition member Centre Party trailing by over 10 points at 21 percent, according to the results of fresh party ratings commissioned by BNS and Postimees and conducted by Kantar Emor.
According to Aivar Voog, survey manager at Kantar Emor, the new Estonia 200 movement, which may develop into a new political party, has for the time being had a limited impact on Estonia's two most popular parties, both of which have a strong brand.
Support for the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) dropped from 19.1 percent in April to 16.7 percent in May, but the opposition party retained its position as third most popular party in Estonia.
Junior coalition member Social Democratic Party (SDE), meanwhile, was supported by 11.9 percent of voters and Pro Patria (formerly IRL) earned the support of 5.1 percent of respondents, placing them just above the five-percent election threshold.
The opposition Free Party came in below the election threshold a four percent, while the non-parliamentary Estonian Greens earned the support of 2.9 percent of survey respondents.
The combined support of the government coalition — which consists of the Centre Party, SDE and Pro Patria — was 38 percent in May, falling below 40 percent for the fifth month in a row. "The government coalition is supported mostly by non-ethnic Estonians, Tallinn residents, women and pensioners," Voog noted.
Estonia 200 exceeds election threshold
The new political movement Estonia 200, which was included in the survey for the first time, earned the support of six percent of respondents, placing it above the five-percent election threshold.
"Even Pro Patria did not receive such a result when first measured," Voog noted. "This kind of result reflects the expectations of citizens for a new party; this type of respondents has thus far likely supported either the Free Party, the Greens or, to a lesser extent, EKRE."
According to Voog, the new power would be supported by people seeking an alternative to large existing parties. "The preferences of this type of voters are usually random, as their preferences have yet to form and may easily change," he said.
"The current result is definitely purely on the basis of emotion," Voog continued. "It is yet too early to say whether this spur-of-the-moment emotion could in any way be realized into concrete voting behavior."
According to the survey, those who prefer Estonia 200 tend to be younger men, among whom are an above-average number of rural residents.
From May 10-16, Kantar Emor interviewed a total of 888 Estonian citizens between the ages of 18-74 online. The answers of the people who listed "no preference" as to party affiliation were eliminated from the outcome to make it as comparable as possible to the outcome of a Riigikogu election; this month, this accounted for 22.5 percent of respondents.
Editor: Aili Vahtla