Poll: Reform, SDE to earn two Estonian seats each in European election

Candidates for MEP on ETV's
Candidates for MEP on ETV's "Valimisstuudio." Source: Kairit Leibold

Based on the results of a recent poll commissioned by daily Postimees and conducted by Kantar Emor, Estonia will elect two Reform Party candidates and two Social Democratic Party (SDE) candidates to the European Parliament, with the remaining two seats most likely to go to the Centre Party and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE). Differences in levels of support are small, however, indicating that results may differ.

According to the results of an online survey conducted from May 20-23 and published by Postimees on Friday (link in Estonian), the eight most popular candidates for MEP ahead of Election Day are as follows:

  • Marina Kaljurand (SDE), 17 percent
  • Andrus Ansip (Reform), 10 percent
  • Urmas Paet (Reform), 9 percent
  • Raimond Kaljulaid (independent), 9 percent
  • Yana Toom (Centre), 8 percent
  • Jaak Madison (EKRE), 7 percent
  • Riho Terras (Isamaa), 5 percent
  • Igor Gräzin (Centre), 4 percent

Based on this survey, the opposition Reform Party, which won the March 3 general election, will also win the European election, commanding the support of 23 percent of respondents.

Support for Reform has nonetheless fallen significantly, by 5 percentage points, since the first half of May, as has support for top candidate Andrus Ansip, which has dropped by 4 percentage points.

While currently forecast to not win a seat, support for the coalition Isamaa has nonetheless increased from 8 to 9 percent, and support for Isamaa's top candidate Riho Terras has likewise inched upward, from 4 to 5 percent, which may indicate that EKRE's chances of earning a seat are under threat.

By Wednesday evening, following the conclusion of early and online voting, a total of 223,870 people, or 25.4 percent of voters, had cast their vote in Estonia, including 155,521 online and 68,349 in person at polling places.

Election Day in Estonia is on Sunday, May 26.


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Editor: Aili Vahtla

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