The Centre Party has lost support among Russian-speaking voters since polls taken before the March general election, according to research from market research company Turu-uuringute, conducted for ERR.
Centre already performed worse than expected at the election with that demographic, traditionally a bastion of support for the party, and the slide has continued into August, ERR's online news in Estonian reports.
In June, support for Centre stood at 61 percent among Russian speaking Estonians, but the figure was 57 percent in August, Turu-uuringute says. This compares with a figure of 78 percent in December 2018, and figures in the 80s for much of former party leader Edgar Savisaar's tenure.
Conversely, support for the party, which won 26 seats at the March general election, has seen an increase in support among ethnic Estonians after the election. Whereas support stood at 11 percent among this demographic in June, the figure had risen to 15 percent in August.
The Reform Party maintains its position as most popular with Estonian-speakers*, with EKRE in second place on 18 percent, and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and Isamaa on nine percent each. Estonia 200, which narrowly missed out on Riigikogu seats in March, is on five percent.
Reform garnered only 13 percent of support among Russian-speakers, with SDE on eight percent, approximately the same as the case with Estonian-speakers. Estonia 200 polled at seven percent with Russian-Speakers, according to the research.
Gender breakdown – one in four men support EKRE
EKRE saw a much higher level of support among men as a whole, at 25 percent, than with women (all language speakers) at nine percent.
Centre on the other hand saw greater support among women than men, at 24 percent and 19 percent respectively. SDE support was slightly stronger with women too, 10 percent, compared with seven percent for male respondents.
Reform saw the most equal support across the genders, with 35 percent of women and 33 percent of men in the survey saying they picked that party first.
Age breakdown – Reform popular among younger voters, Centre and EKRE remain strong with older, SDE and Isamaa popular with oldest and youngest, less so with the rest
The age breakdown between Centre and Reform remains strong, according to Turu-uuringute's data.
Centre retains its traditional position as the most popular party among voters who are 65 and older. Thirty-three percent of those aged 65-74, rising to 37 percent with 75-year-olds and older, picked the party first. Support for Centre in the youngest age group of 18-24 years old stood at just six percent.
Reform was the most popular party in all age groups below 65, polling at 33 percent in the 18-24-year-old age bracket. The figure was even higher among those aged 25-34 (45 percent) and 35-49 (41 percent), with Reform getting 32 percent support in the 50-64-year-old group.
EKRE also sees a larger than average degree of support among older voters: 22 percent in the 50-64 age group and 23 percent with those aged 65-74.
SDE and Isamaa saw a dip in support among most age groups, but were propped up by higher than average levels of support on the margins. Among those aged 18-24, SDE picked up 12 percent and Isamaa 10 percent; similarly in the oldest age group (75+) the figures were 14 percent and 11 percent respectively.
Turu-uuringute polled 1,000 people face-to-face Aug. 9-20.
*Refers to respondents' first language.
Editor: Andrew Whyte