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Aggregate ratings: Reform ahead of Center by 6.5 percent

Reform and Center promotional balloons.
Reform and Center promotional balloons. Source: ERR

ERR's Estonian portal aggregated the results of party rating surveys of three polling companies (Norstat, Kantar Emor, Turu-uuringute AS), which show that Reform Party sits atop with 28.4 percent of support, followed by the Center Party with 21.9 percent.

Reform's support based on the surveys conducted by pollsters Norstat, Kantar Emor and Turu-uuringute AS, sits at 28.4 percent as of mid-August. It should be noted that the average of results is brought down by the results of Turu-uuringute AS' survey, which had Reform at 23 percent. The survey results sparked debate over research methodologies, as the company had recently changed their means of research.

The Center Party, who saw their first lead in any ratings survey conducted since the last elections in 2019, is closest to Reform in terms of public support, as the average support for the prime minister's party over the three polling companies is at 21.9 percent, 6.5 percentage points behind the opposition Reform Party.

The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) sits third with an arithmetic mean of 18.2 percent of public support. EKRE's support was highest in the survey conducted by Turu-uuringute AS, where the party saw a fifth of respondents favoring the party over others.

The Social Democrats (SDE) follow the three most popular parties with 10.6 percent support, exceeding Eesti 200's support by 0.4 percent. SDE's support is likely supported most by Emor's survey, which was conducted over the internet which tends to favor the more liberal parties.

As an average of the surveys, non-parliamentary party Eesti 200 sits at 10.2 percent, with Emor's survey even putting them as high as having 14 percent of public support, while other surveys had the party at either nine percent or less.

The third of the coalition parties, Isamaa, who saw their support drop below the electoral threshold of 5 percent in June, are currently sitting at 5.4 percent on an average of the three surveys. While their support was exactly 5 percent for Turu-uuringute AS' and Emor's survey, Norstat's survey had the coalition party at 6.4 percent.

ERR noted that in a general calculation, the probability of error for the aggregated results is +/- 2.55 percent, which should be taken into consideration when assessing the results.


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Editor: Kristjan Kallaste

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