Norstat ratings: Isamaa's support falls below 5 percent election threshold

The Isamaa Council in Paide on February 29, 2020.
The Isamaa Council in Paide on February 29, 2020. Source: Olev Kenk / ERR

Coalition party Isamaa's level of support fell below the 5 percent electoral threshold this week, new polling from Norstat and the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) shows. EKRE's decline continues.

The latest poll shows the party on 4.8 percent. At elections, each party needs to cross the 5 percent threshold to be represented in the Riigikogu. This figure is the first time the party has dropped below the threshold in Norstat's polling.

The Reform Party still has the highest level of support at 33.2 percent, followed by the Center Party on 23.7 percent.

The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) has 15.2 percent of eligible citizens' support, a decrease from the week before. EKRE's support has been declining for six weeks and they have lost 2.7 percent in that time.

The Social Democratic Party (SDE) has 8.6 percent support, Estonia 200 is on 8.4 percent. Estonia 200 is a non-parliamentary party which narrowly missed the threshold at the last election.

The Coalition parties - Center, Isamaa and EKRE - have 43.7 percent and opposition parties - Reform and SDE - 41.8 percent.

Researcher Martin Mölder said that this week's ratings show that the difference in support for the Center Party and Reform Party has temporarily become stable. Support for Center has either remained unchanged or risen since late August while no changes have been observed in support for the Reform Party.

Center's position has improved among Estonian-speaking voters, whose support to the party has risen to the same level as at the start of summer, the researcher said. Support by Russian-speaking voters has rather declined compared with spring, however.

Support for EKRE continued declining this week, as did that for Isamaa. The aggregate result for the latter has fallen below the 5-percent election threshold for the first time since the general elections, according to Mölder. Among Estonian-speaking voters, support for Isamaa exceeds the election threshold whereas among Russian-speaking citizens it has rarely been over 2 percent, he said.

In presenting the results, the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues and Norstat Eesti AS have focused on the aggregate result of the last four weeks. This means that the sample is at least 4,000 people and the statistical error is +/- 1.55 percent.

The Institute for the Study of Societal Issues is a think tank founded in January 2016, which studies and analyzes the social processes taking place in Estonian society.


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Editor: Helen Wright

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