Research fellow at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) Kalev Stoicescu says that international organizations created after WWII are becoming less influential, with the world polarizing around democratic and undemocratic states.
The West has developed two camps one of which finds that Ukraine must win the war and Russia lose, while the other believes Vladimir Putin needs to be given a way to save face.
"The first group is made up not only of the U.S. and UK but also the Nordics, Baltics, Poland, Romania and a few others. I would call this group the victory party. Our goal is to help Ukraine liberate its territory. That would constitute Russia's loss and victory for Ukraine and us," Stoicescu said.
"The other camp we can call the peace party, made up of Germany, France, Italy – all of whom would like to see a quick peace treaty. But how could we have peace and not on the Kremlin's terms? Therefore, any quick path to peace would inevitably lead to a new conflict down the line," the expert suggested.
Stoicescu said that international organizations are losing their significance.
"International organizations created after World War II, like the UN and OSCE, have begun to lose in significance. We can see the world polarizing around democratic states, not just NATO and the EU but also Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea. And on the other side there are undemocratic states, led by Russia and China. There is also a third and rather numerous group of countries. India, Brazil, South Africa – states that do not want to pick a side or define themselves too narrowly just yet. But I think that the way things are going, they will have to lean either way eventually," Stoicescu offered.
The camps' battlegrounds are formats like the G20, he suggested.
"The organization of the 20 largest economies in the world that has both democratic and undemocratic participants. /…/ The G7 is now made up solely of democratic countries after Russia was thrown out of the G8. And as concerns the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, all its members are undemocratic," Stoicescu added.
Editor: Marcus Turovski