Experts: No cause to hope Russia about to run out of conventional munitions

Multiple rocket launcher in Ukraine.
Multiple rocket launcher in Ukraine. Source: ERR

Winter in Ukraine will see mutual barrages on enemy positions and continued Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure. Russia may have lost the initiative in the war, while there are no grounds to suggest it is about to run out of conventional munitions, experts say.

Reserve Lt. Col. Leo Kunnas told "Aktuaalne kaamera" news that a grueling winter is in store in Ukraine. Russia has lost the initiative and their winter tactic is to try and destroy Ukrainian infrastructure to force the other side into negotiating.

"Just as Germany failed in its attempt to bomb the U.K. into peace talks in 1940, just like the Allies failed to force Germany to make peace by bombing its cities in 1943-44, it will fail this time. Rather, it is uniting the Ukrainian people," Kunnas suggested.

The sides are hitting each other using artillery and air strikes. Retired Gen. Urmas Roosimägi said that Russia is using few high-tech missiles because of their cost. A single Kalibr X missile costs $400,000, while Roosimägi does not believe Russia is about to run out of conventional munitions.

"I visited Moldova. There is a place in Transnistria called Kolbasnaya. They have a major army mobilization warehouse there. It takes 28,000 railcars to move its contents," the retired general said.

As long as Russia keeps buying Iranian drones or assembling them on location, Ukrainian infrastructure will continue to be in danger. Positions and settlements close to the front lines still make for artillery targets.

"After Putin's meeting, the military industry, all factories are working three shifts. The Russians have everything they need to manufacture munitions. Metal, cheap energy etc.," he suggested. "To hope that Russia will run out of munitions... as my Ukrainian friends would say – Russians fire artillery eight or nine times in the time we fire one."

The residents of Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv are preparing for winter and told ERR correspondents Anton Aleksejev and Kristjan Svirgsden that for as long as the war continues, there is no miracle cure for winter.

"Were they to dial back the bombing, things would be fine. The Russians are targeting all possible infrastructure objects. Nothing works anymore," Kryvyi Rih resident Oleksandr said.

"We have a summer house. Once the power and heat go out, we'll move to the countryside, heat the furnace using firewood and try to survive. What else is there. We do not plan to emigrate at this time," said Anzhela, who also lives in Kryvyi Rih.

"I wish this war would end. We will survive it all. Should we lose heat and power, we will dress warm, light candles and survive this winter," Irina added.

Mykolaiv resident Yana said that she does not know what will happen. "We hope we will have gas and heating. But we're stacking firewood for the winter."


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Editor: Marcus Turovski

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