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Party ratings: Isamaa remains most-supported in first week of 2024

Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) and Martin Helme (EKRE).
Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) and Martin Helme (EKRE). Source: Priit Mürk/ERR

Support ratings for the major political parties in Estonia have remained largely unchanged over the turn of the year, with Isamaa continuing to be firmly in the lead, according to one recent survey.

A total of 61 percent of respondents to the survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute of Social Studies ( (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) , put their support behind one of the opposition parties, namely Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) or the Center Party, while 34.3 percent picked one of the three coalition partners: Reform, Eesti 200 or the Social Democrats (SDE).

The remainder would be in the "don't know" category.

By party, 26.3 percent supported Isamaa, meaning it retains the status it took as most-supported party towards the end of last year. EKRE stay in second place on 19.7 percent of support, while Reform, the prime minister's party, are in third place still, on 17.4 percent.

Isamaa is thus 6.6 percentage points ahead of Reform, according to Norstat.

These "top" three are followed by Center (15 percent of support), SDE (10.9 percent) and Eesti 200 (6 percent).

Eesti 200's rating per Norstat is one percentage point above the threshold required to win a seat in any given electoral district, at any of the three direct elections held in Estonia: To the Riigikogu, to the European Parliament, and to municipal councils.

On the other hand, it is too early to see how the recent exodus of six MPs from the Center Party, bringing it down to the smallest party by Riigikogu seats (seven), will affect that party's rating.

Changes on the last week of 2023 have been minimal; EKRE's support fell by 0.7 percentage points over that time frame, Reform's by 0.6 percentage points, while Isamaa's is unchanged.

The line graph below illustrates changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys, in early 2019. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).

The tables below that show the four-week aggregate figures Erakondade toetusprotsent (4 nädala koondtulemused ) and weekly figures (Iganädalased tulemused) for each party also (Key: Eesti Keskerakond = Center Party; Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond = EKRE; Eesti Reformierakond = Reform; Sotisiaaldemokraatlik Erakond = SDE; Erakond Eesti Rohelised = Greens; Muu = Other parties).

Norstat conducts its polls on a weekly basis and then aggregates the results over the preceding four weeks. The current aggregate results cover the period December 4, 2023 to January 8, 2024, during which time just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were polled on their party preferences, both online and over the phone.

Norstat claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of the party by support, so in the case of Isamaa as the largest party by support, the margin claims is +/- 1.58 percent, compared with +/- 0.85 percent for Eesti 200, the smallest party by support from among the six Riigikogu parties, according to Norstat.

The XV Riigikogu returned to work on Monday this week.

The next elections are to the European Parliament, in June.

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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mait Ots

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