On Tuesday morning and evening, the market price of electricity in Estonia will exceed €200 per megawatt-hour, while the average price for the day will be double what it was Monday, according to data from Estonian transmission system operator (TSO) Elering.
While hourly electricity prices in Nord Pool's Estonian price area remained below €100 per megawatt-hour (MWh), and for much of the day were well below even that, on Tuesday the price will rise to nearly €250 per MWh between 6-7 a.m. and almost €200 again per MWh between 8-9 a.m.
On Tuesday evening, the hourly market price in Estonia will rise to nearly €200 again between 5-6 p.m. and from there reach nearly €250 again between 6-7 p.m.
The average market price of electricity in Estonia is €61.33 MWh, but according to Elering data will double to €121.53 per MWh (exclusive of VAT) on Tuesday.
One factor behind the price hike is evidently a sharp dip in forecast wind and solar energy production on Tuesday.
According to the TSO, while solar parks should produce a total of 537 MWh of output on Monday, this is expected to drop to just 218 MWh on Tuesday.
Similarly, wind farm generation should supply the grid with 2,460 MWh on Monday, but is slated to provide just 675 MWh on Tuesday.
The production deficit from renewable sources, i.e. wind and solar, must be compensated primarily by oil shale-fired plants, however the latter's output is significantly more expensive due to carbon quotas.
Also impacting prices may be the fact that the Estonian-Finnish undersea power cable Estlink 2 is offline, reducing the amount of cheaper Nordic electricity to reach the Baltics.
According to figures from the Estonian state-owned energy group Eesti Energia, the average market price of electricity in Estonia for January was €154.40 per MWh, the highest it has been in the last 12 months.
Editor: Aili Vahtla