Center has been in office for around 20 years, and is currently the senior partner in a coalition with the Social Democrats (SDE). Meanwhile the Reform Party says it has lined up a new deputy council chair candidate, which, given the opposition parties were divided on the issue before, suggests a new unity within that opposition.

Tallinn city council meets in the building at Vana-Viru 12 (pictured), while the city government's main central administration is located at Vabaduse väljak 7.

A key figure in the current situation is one of several recent defectors from the Center Party, Andre Hanimägi, Center's former secretary general.

Since Hanimägi quit Center to join SDE, at a time when several of his party-mates did the same thing, he will be sitting with that party in the council, ie. a coalition party.

However, SDE has started to weigh up its options too and is looking closely at the opposition parties' actions both separately and jointly.

As for any possible coup d'état which could be associated with Hanimägi's return to the council, the latter said that pragmatism is key; i.e. if the current ruling alliance is functioning, there is no direct reason to break it up.

Hanimägi noted that the Center Party having been in office in Tallinn for 20 consecutive years now is somehow in line with political reality, the corollary being that its leaving office in Tallinn would tally with that reality, too.

He told ERR that: "Right now, the coalition is capable of functioning, but will that continued to be the case in the coming months; circumstances in politics can change very quickly. If there a situation arises where consultations, to create a new ruling coalition have to start, then it is important that long-term agreements be concluded."

The four opposition parties in Tallinn: The Reform Party, Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and Eesti 200, have taken one step in that direction by, despite their differences, agreeing on a single candidate to take the second deputy chair post at the council, a position given to an opposition party.

On this, Reform's leader in Tallinn, Pärtel-Peeter Pere, said: "We all have a goal before our eyes: The dissolution of city power, the fall of that power. You can consider that this possible fall will also encourage people to cooperate more, and to display a greater unity."

Hanimägi meanwhile said: "I am a former Center member and I have been a district mayor, and they (ie. Center – ed.) have also been capable of doing the right things. But the question now is what will happen in the next two to three months, and I can't say what that is right now. If the coalition doesn't work out, then we will definitely have to look at other options."

If Hanimägi returns to the council, the Central Party will only have 33 seats in the council. There are 79 seats in the Tallinn council in total.

Were Hanimägi gone Center has 33 council seats at the 79-seat chamber. Since EKRE has six seats, the other three opposition parties, plus SDE, would have a slim majority at 40 seats. Including EKRE would give the coalition a cast-iron 46-seat majority over Center's 33 seats, as things stand.

EKRE council deputies chair Mart Kallas said they were not ruling anything in or out, though, he said, it was up to SDE – the party's traditional nemesis – to decide if, and how, they could be in office with EKRE.

Kallas said there were no major obstacles to such an outcome from his party's side, though the green transition – which would include planned reorganizations of street traffic in central Tallinn – could potentially prove a problem area.

SDE council chair Jevgeni Ossinovski had said early on this year that his party would not cooperate with EKRE in Tallinn, however.

Then again, Mart Kallas said, any theoretical new coalition would have a hard time of it at the legislature without his party.

"I can say from experience that roughly 70 percent of members are present at the council meetings from the Reform Party, while the Center Party brings almost 100 percent; they are very loyal party rank-and-file. Without us, I guess it still wouldn't work out, and in stead another five people would have to defect from Center," Kallas said.

Pärtel-Peeter Pere said efforts have now been made to present the opposition as a united front, and to come up with new ideas, a lack of which SDE has criticized them for.

This would have the effect of reassuring SDE that they can certainly count on the opposition parties, all four of them, when creating a new coalition.

As noted the final lock in step was to agree on a joint candidate for the position of second deputy chair. This would, the four opposition partners agreed the week before last, come from the Reform Party, while EKRE would provide the vice-chair to the council's finance and education committee.

Isamaa and Eesti 200 have also taken their own initiatives, the latter, for example, recently launched a motion of no confidence in Mayor of Tallinn Mihhail Kõvart (Center).

Hanimägi's three-month suspension as a city council member ends in mid-March, which may or may not be the deadline for any coup d'etat in Tallinn to be ready.

In any case, any sign of a weakening of the Center Party is encouraging to the opposition.

Pere said that a Hanimägi return would lead to conditions for change which have been awaited for two decades – even as it on its own will not change much, it will represent a blow to the city government, and a step closer to its fall.

"When the city government finally drives into the ditch, you will be able to see it," Pere said.

Pere said a Reform-EKRE dispute over the nomination of Sander Andla last spring was now in the past and the spirit of agreement has returned.

The Reform Party faction is to meet ahead of Thursday's city council session and decide who to nominate to the second deputy chair post; Pere said Viljar Jaamu, head of Reform's Lasnamäe region, will be presented as the candidate (Andla has a new role as head of communications with the party in any case, Pere said).

Pere added that the other three opposition parties and their council deputies are aware of Jaamu's candidacy, meaning Thursday's council session is simply a formality, ie. electing Jaamu.

The opposition had in any case been cooperating more since last autumn, when together they submitted proposals for amendments to the 2024 city budget, though as recently as the start of the year, SDE deputy mayor Madle Lippus said that the opposition had not in fact proven very united, while Ossinovski had spoken warmly of cooperation with Center.

Mart Kallas also remained fairly lukewarm to the real prospect of change when he said: "Twenty years in power means, of course, that the entire city apparatus is full of their (ie. Center's) 'soldiers,' so the goal should be to change that, but let us see what the negotiations will bring, if they even ever start," Kallas added.

The Center Party had for years ruled Tallinn alone but a reduced mandate after the October 2021 local elections meant the party had to enter a coalition, in this case with SDE, in order to maintain a majority.

The next local elections in Estonia take place in October 2025.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!