20 years of NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission: Russia can still surprise us

NATO's Baltic Air Policing Mission marks its 20th anniversary this year and Germany has been one of the most frequent participants. ERR News spoke to the German Air Force's Lieut. Col. Swen Jacob about why this mission is important, what Germany gets out of it, and how Russia can still surprise the Alliance.
The air policing mission started in Lithuania in 2004 and expanded to Estonia in 2014 after Russia invaded Ukraine. In total, 17 countries have contributed over the last 20 years. NATO stresses the mission is "purely defensive."
Jacob has participated in five rotations, three in Estonia, and once in Romania, and he has just started the first mission in Latvia, which is taking over duties from Estonia while the runway at Ämari Air Base undergoes repairs this year.
"I wouldn't say it's a fun mission. That's not the right description, but it's an interesting mission," Jacob told ERR News in a recent phone interview from Lielvārde Air Base in Latvia.
The Allies mainly protect Baltic airspace on rotations as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania lack the capabilities to do so themselves. Their main task is to visually identify Russian Federation Air Force aircraft flying close to NATO's airspace in breach of regulations.

Germany has participated in the mission more than a dozen times, flying from all three Baltic counties. This makes it one of the most frequent participants. Usually four planes and one spare along with 150-200 personnel visit on each rotation. A political agreement means the air force usually flies from Ämari once a year.
"We have the chance to show that Germany is part of NATO and stands its ground whenever we need to," he says.
Jacob describes the experience pilots get as "tremendous."
"You get to see Russian aircraft and the different systems they have. So it's good training. And, of course, it is good training for the pilots' skills to be able to navigate the aircraft and be prepared but also not to escalate," Jacob says.
"It's a fine line always between being ready and showing the strengths that we have, but also obviously not starting any incident or any war in that position. So that's a good learning skill for all the pilots."

Russia's behavior hasn't changed, but can still be surprising
Jacob says the German Air Force is scrambled to respond to Russian aircraft between 20-30 times per rotation. Surprisingly, this number has not changed much over the years.
"It's a little bit lower in the wintertime, and a little bit more in the summertime, but that is the average," the lieutenant colonel adds.
One thing that has changed in recent years is the type of aircraft flying between mainland Russia and the highly militarized Kaliningrad exclave.
"There is more transport going on because the Baltic states closed their borders over the last couple of years. So a lot of transport, exchange of personnel, and so on is going by the air," Jacob says.
"And you could also see during the development over the last couple of years, depending on where the Russians are doing business, like in Syria, or now the Ukraine war, sometimes the types of aircraft change a little bit, or sometimes they are modern and sometimes they are a bit older."

"So there's a little bit of change in activity but overall it hasn't changed much," he summarizes.
In the Baltics, compared to his experience in Romania at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, there is a regularity to the mission.
"[But] the Russians surprise us also quite a bit," Jacob says, adding it is hard to know what is done intentionally or accidentally when flying over international waters.
"They have to stick to a certain amount of rules. Sometimes they adhere to all the rules, sometimes they don't. Whether that's a technical problem or intentional problem or just by accident, I cannot look inside the head in the cockpit. Sometimes when they fly back and forth a couple of times on the same day they use a transponder and talk on the radio to the proper authorities and sometimes they don't," he explains. "That's always when we get called to escort them."
Estonians are "perfect hosts"
Jacob describes the Estonians as "perfect hosts" adding they always receive enough support.

He says there is little difference in being stationed in each country as the mission does not change. "But in terms of support that we're getting and the kindness and how the people talk to us, it's always the same around the Baltics," the lieutenant colonel says.
When the German Air Force is not responding to a "hot alert" from NATO, the teams fly training missions. They try and fly twice a day six days a week.
"We try to move our aircraft and work with the people almost every day," Jacob goes on.
On days off, the crews explore the local areas or go to Tallinn. "That's also part of the mission, so we don't get isolated. But we try to be amongst the people and like to understand how they work, what they're doing, what their problems are," Jacob says.
Overall, the mission sends a "clear signal" that NATO is "stronger together", he says: "No matter how big or small the air forces or the forces in general are, we stick together in NATO."

Last year was the first year Russian military planes had not breached Estonian airspace since 2014, data from the Estonian Air Force shows.
However, there were still more than 100 responses by NATO to Russian aircraft.
Experts do not believe this shows a reduction in the Russian Air Force's capabilities due to the war in Ukraine.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Marcus Turovski