Expert: Macron statement immoral but constitutes successful populism
French President Emmanuel Macron's statement, in which he considered it possible to send Western troops to the war in Ukraine, can be deemed immoral, but successful populism, said security expert and former senior defense ministry official Meelis Oidsalu.
"It was a controversial, in my opinion deeply immoral, but in some ways successful populist statement from him," commented Oidsalu on Wednesday's "Terevisioon."
Oidsalu recalled that Macron was not the leader of any classical party when running for president, but rather came to power accompanied by a populist movement. "He is a politician who also maintains power in a populist manner and does this in defense issues as well. Sometimes a populist strikes a nerve," the expert acknowledged.
"We remember from earlier that during this war, Macron has pulled various stunts, including hours-long phone interviews with Putin. He has talked, even during very difficult times for Ukraine, like when Mariupol was being besieged, about how France could go and somehow help resolve the humanitarian crisis there during the war, which would have also implied sending in troops. At times, his populism has been morally and humanly very cynical," Oidsalu found.
At the meeting in Paris on Monday, Macron seized a moment of some confusion in the United States and when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is accused of weakness, which gives Macron the opportunity to create an impression of himself as the new leader of Europe and a global power, described Oidsalu.
"But against this backdrop, we must consider that this so-called global power has supported Ukraine militarily with €200 million less in absolute terms than Estonia: all the things that we have given and promised altogether, France has provided less in absolute terms," emphasized Oidsalu.
He also acknowledged that without the United States, neither France nor Europe as a whole would have sufficient military power to embark on an expeditionary war in Ukraine and fight there on the scale and timeframe that the current war demands.
"It simply isn't militarily credible. Until the U.S. backs this proposal, it's all just a successful provocation, which may also be necessary in a situation where the entire Western policy on Ukraine is very much stuck. Any military intervention would require a political objective, but we don't even have that today. Macron mentioned that there could be a victory, but that's actually not something [U.S. President Joe] Biden and Scholz have stated," noted Oidsalu.
However, he also said there's no point in excluding close military cooperation with Ukraine and even the participation of Western military personnel in the war, as this is already a reality.
"NATO and EU countries are training the Ukrainian forces. And we are providing targeting information, which isn't directly participating in combat, but largely enabling it for Ukraine, our intelligence services are cooperating. We are already there in some supportive aspects. If we were to formalize this and officially send someone to Ukrainian soil, it would provide Russia with additional arguments for their narrative that NATO is attacking," he described.
Oidsalu also mentioned that he does not see a change in the West's attitudes towards Ukraine: "I'm also holding my breath to see what happens in America this week. But the general course today is such that we talk about the continuation of the current situation at the front as the best possible scenario. We're not talking about a Ukrainian counter-offensive or victory like last year, and here conservative analysts are already saying it's quite likely that Russia will advance further, because after retreating from Avdiivka there's no longer the meat grinder which they fed with their forces and they have become more active on other fronts."
Commenting on the criticism directed at Olaf Scholz, Oidsalu believes the German chancellor should pay more attention to his public relations.
"Scholz needs to do something with his communication team. Because if we look at how much Germany has actually supported Ukraine militarily or promised support, it's 28 times more than France. If we look at how much Germany has committed troops to the Baltic states and is bringing them here, it's more than all the other allies combined. Germany is doing things, supporting, and is actually in this war with resources, but somehow it always seems like they're doing nothing and they don't want anything," Oidsalu said.
"If Macron actually wants to bring some kind of turn in this war, he should first provide as much military aid as Germany. That would be a good start," Oidsalu concluded his remarks.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Marcus Turovski
Source: "Terevisioon", interviewer Juhan Kilumets