Harri Tiido: Macron acting as he does result of weakness show by Scholz

In making his decisive statements relating to the war in Ukraine, President of France Emmanuel Macron wants to take on a lead role in the European Union, given the relative weakness shown by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, former diplomat Harri Tiido said Wednesday.
Speaking to ETV politics show "Esimene stuudio," Tiido said: "In a democracy, order is already based around civil control, meaning that the politicians get to decide. The military can be as good as it can be, but if the politicians do not agree to deploy them or to utilize the military industry, then nothing will happen, as that military knows full well that they get the training but he decision comes at the political level."
Tiido acknowledged that politicians have been induced to act thanks to threats from Russia. "In fact, this is some sort of a complex, in my opinion. A psychiatrist or a psychologist is needed here to evaluate that, make a diagnosis and perhaps prescribe something – maybe that would have an effect. But in the West this is still the case up to now when Medvedev, Peskov or Putin or any other idiot from Moscow suddenly makes a loud din and says that if you do this or that, we will deploy nuclear weapons or something along those lines," Tiido, a former Estonian ambassador to Finland, went on.
Fear therefore has not dissipated among Western politicians, who at the same time are also thinking about their voters.
"The electorate are already getting fatigued, in some countries," Tiido said.
"This means that the war in Ukraine has moved from the first place on the list of issues to somewhere in second, third or fourth place. The Middle East has its own episodes; the Red Sea and Houthi attacks on ships. These are concrete things that affect market prices. This means we have to bear it in mind. So, in this sense, politicians are in a difficult position on their own," he added.
The optimal time for stronger support for Ukraine has probably already passed, Tiido added. "It should have been the clear understanding right from the very outset that Russia must be declared culpable in all this."
However the leadership of many major countries have not yet specifically stated that they will support Ukraine through to triumph, he continued.
"Let us recall the recent visit by Olaf Scholz to Washington. President Joe Biden and Chancellor Scholz sat side-by-side, but neither of them mentioned that they support Ukraine through to its victory and to a Russian defeat."
"Emmanuel Macron has however now said that we support Ukraine through to victory. This means that, clearly, it should be outed as a public statement that Ukraine must win. And not only Ukraine having to win, but Russia having to be defeated. Until that happens, nothing much will change," Tiido said.
Tiido added that, in his opinion, the Russian Federation should break up (Estonian: lagunema). "For as long as Russia remains an empire – in the meantime there may be a better 'Tsar,' but then another bad Tsar will come along again – the whole spectacle will recur, over and over again."
The French president garnered a lot of attention on Tuesday after saying that, in his opinion, sending French military personnel to Ukraine should not be ruled out. Tiido stressed that Macron's words do not have to equate to ground forces will be sent to Ukraine, but could involve instructors or mine clearing specialists, etc.
There is reason behind Macron's narrative, Tiido added.
"When I examine Britain's views and now those also held in France, it seems there is actually a completely rational explanation as to why Macron is acting as he has been. This is because Scholz has shown weakness, but Europe needs a leader. This is particularly the case in a situation where America's leading role in this may evaporate," Tiido continued.
"Plus I think Macron has been aspiring for some time to get France in place as a lead country, and to be at the helm of that leading country. So he's looking to play that role," Tiido added.
"However I even think in this case – I used to be skeptical on this – that maybe that would be necessary. Indeed, actually every herd needs a leader of that sort. And I think that the 'herd' of European politicians needs such a leader, one who could point them in the right direction. If they come on board, of course, which I am also not sure about."
Tiido said he believes that France will be ready to fulfill Macron's pledges. "I think that Macron wants to back up his words with something concrete. But the question is that the lead ram can bring the flock in one direction, but the flock may prefer to head to the slaughterhouse."
As to the question whether the fear of being drawn into the war is particularly strong in Germany, Tiido said that Berlin is more afraid of what will transpire if Russia gets its way.
"I would say that this fear can really exist, but not because of where it will draw things, but because of what will happen next if Russia gets its way. Or if the line is drawn where it is now, Russia will amass strength and return. Let's think, as a suggestion for Scholz, a little further ahead, not only in terms of our short career span, but also about the careers of children and grandchildren. Russia will keep coming if it doesn't get an answer," Tiido summed up.
Harri Tiido was talking to Johannes Tralla.
Special forces personnel from several western nations have reportedly been operating inside Ukraine at least as far back as the early months of the current war.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Merili Nael
Source: 'Esimene stuudio.'