Macron announced on Monday that a new coalition would be formed to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles and ammunition. He also refused to rule out the dispatch of Western ground troops, news agency AFP reported, although leaders from western capitals were quick to push back.

Kannik said several things should be kept in mind when reading the president's comments.

"I think you have to look at several different sides here. One is the rhetorical deterrence side. I think this is a good and useful message for us to send to Russia. It is a better message than the one that President Biden gave before the full-scale Russian aggression started, that NATO would not under any circumstances get directly involved in military action. In any case, this option must be retained," he told ERR.

"It certainly worries the Kremlin. On the one hand, of course, the Kremlin could now use this argument that, you see, we have said all along that we are at war with NATO. But I think that greater than the propagandistic joy they get from this statement is the real concern that they may well end up at some point in a real, full-scale conflict with the West, which they certainly fear and which they do not have the strength to carryout today," Kannik commented.

For Macron's statement to be taken seriously, some real steps must follow, Kannik said, at least when it comes to the provision of long-range missiles to Ukraine and a significant increase in ammunition. 

"And here France itself has been one of the problems, because it has been guided by the principle that all this ammunition should be produced in the European Union," Kannik said.

Russia does not have the strength to open new fronts

Kannik does not think it likely that Russia would attack NATO countries if Western soldiers were sent to Ukraine.

"At this stage, where Russia has not achieved its military and political objectives in Ukraine, I do not think it likely that Russia has the resources and military strength to open new fronts. I would suggest, however, that Russia will avoid taking the next steps unless it is sure of what it can actually do in that direction," he said.

However, the ICDS director said countries are unlikely to deploy soldiers to Ukraine. But if they did, this would be a matter for special operations units rather than tens of thousands of ground troops.

Kannik said Macron could be seeking domestic attention with his comments and trying to present himself as a successor to U.S. leadership in Europe.

Scholz's statement sends a different message

But the analyst said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recent comments and refusal to send Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine sends a completely different message to the Kremlin.

"There was no need for this statement, even if he doesn't want to give them, he shouldn't have to say it like that," said Kannik.

He pointed out that Scholz has made similar statements in the past, for example, about giving tanks to Ukraine, which he later u-turned.

"I suppose that for the Germans a lot depends on what the Biden administration does. If the American administration should agree to provide the Ukrainians with ATACMS missiles, then the German position on this issue might change," Kannik said.

On Monday, Scholz said there are two main principal problems with sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine: their range, and the likely need for assistance from German Bundeswehr troops, which he said could be construed as direct or indirect participation in the war. 

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