Giving an overview of the security situation and the last two years, he reiterated there is no immediate military threat against Estonia. The country is quickly developing its defense capabilities to make Estonia a safe place to live.

"All those funding decisions that were made two years ago are now starting to materialize. These weapons, equipment, and ammunition are starting to arrive in Estonia. The Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) are 50 percent bigger than they were two years ago," he said at a press conference.

Estonia's defense forces, armaments, ammunition reserves, will to defend, the situation with allies and NATO has never been higher, Salm said.

However, Russia's attack on Ukraine is still an existential threat, he said: "And we must see it as exactly that."

Over the past two years, some things have gone well. Ukrainians have demonstrated "superhuman bravery, love for their country and freedom, military cunning," the official said. Additionally, the 51 Allies in the Ramstein coalition have shown more unity than anyone would have believed before the full-scale invasion started and given a lot of military aid, he added.

But Ukraine has not yet won the war, the permanent secretary stressed – and Russia is convinced it is moving towards a victory.

"Which means it is possible that Ukraine can lose this war. This is a sentence that is considerably more complex and difficult to say. It is all the more important that we say it. Because the prospect of Ukraine losing this war is absolutely catastrophic for Estonian security, for European security, and for NATO security," Salm said.

"I have been talking a lot about this in the foreign media lately and used the expression that before things get better, they usually get worse. But Estonian people are more direct and maybe have a slightly more realistic attitude towards the war in Ukraine. The reality is that things get worse before they get better. Then they get even worse. And then they suddenly go completely crazy. And only then do they slowly get better. Today we are somewhere between bad and getting worse," Salm continued.

One of Ukraine's biggest problems is a "catastrophic" shortage of ammunition that is "getting worse every day."

"As it stands today, of all the artillery that has been given to Ukraine, one-third is in use. The daily norm per artillery piece is six to eight rounds. This is total starvation when we are talking about winning a war. Russia has a huge surplus. They have many times more artillery and dozens of times more ammunition," the permanent secretary went on.

Salm said Ukraine has been able to spread its artillery over a 1,000-kilometer front with the help of allies, intelligence and targeting. But ammunition stocks are quickly diminishing.

The rapid recruitment of soldiers also means their training is "insufficient." "This will lead to even greater loss of human life, which in turn risks greater territorial concessions. This adds some fuel to the Russian war of attrition victory theory," Salm said.

He said Western allies struggle to provide ammunition for many reasons, such as logistics and production, but the focus should be on political will and money.

"Today, there is not a single head of state in the Ramstein coalition who has not stated the need to support Ukraine and spoken at length about it, made a speech, or taken a selfie with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. There is plenty of political will. What is lacking is the capacity. The capacity to put enough money on the table for Ukraine to win this war," the permanent secretary said.

Salm said there is no reason to worry about relations between Europe and the US. "Mutual interests are so great that nothing will happen to transatlantic security," he said.

But Salm said if the US does not want to finance Ukraine's victory, then Europe must step up. "And if Europe, for whatever reason, does not want to, then we [Estonia] have to do it. It is as simple as that. And that is what this existential threat means for us," Salm said.

The official compared the situation to World War Two, saying it took the UK and US three years to come together and state Nazi Germany must lose the war. He said it was significant that at the start of the week, 21 heads of state met in Paris and said directly that Ukraine must win the war: "This is an important message and an important development. Nothing will get better until we have formulated this goal."

Estonia has developed a victory strategy and calculated for Ukraine to win, the Ramstein coalition allies only need to allocate 0.25 percent of their GDP per year in military aid.

"0.25 percent of GDP as military aid equates to a total of €120 billion. This will buy enough ammunition and armaments for Ukraine to win this war. This is something that all countries can afford. It is a small price to pay to overcome the biggest strategic problem we face," Salm said. He added that several countries already support the plan.

Another idea is issuing Ukraine defense bonds.

"What is clear is that Europe needs to take a bigger, stronger and more aggressive role in supporting Ukraine. To set a stronger example. Already in the autumn, the Estonian prime minister came forward with an initiative that Europe should issue at least €100 billion in defense bonds for this purpose. The good news is that all EU leaders are on board. We are moving towards this money finally being found," he said.

Salm added that if European countries keep their promises, Ukraine will be able to achieve fire superiority by the beginning of 2025.

"In short – EU bonds, 0.25 percent and ammunition, then Ukraine can win this war," Salm said.

He dismissed the accusation that national defense costs have caused the Estonian government's deficit, calling it factually inaccurate. Additionally, a further €1.6 billion needs to be invested in ammunition stocks. "This will bring us up to the level to meet the agreed NATO plans," he continued.

Estonia also needs to change how it talks about national defense: "It can't just be based on threat and risk. It must be an area of excitement, growth, opportunity and development," said Salm.

This includes building up the defense industry.

"We see that, with additional investment, the defense industry would be one area where we could take on board all the technological developments made in Ukraine, and combine them with the Estonian start-up culture, technological spirit and innovation. Estonia's image is that innovative and forward-looking things are done here. To make national defense stronger through it and attract foreign companies here. To make it the next engine of the Estonian economy," the permanent secretary said.

Salm also praised Estonia for its support.

"I would like to thank the Estonian people, the press, businesses, reservists, and members of the Defense League (Kaitseliit) for all the support you have given to national defense. This is very important because it is easier to do this hard work when we feel supported. Thank you very much for that," he added.

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