Last year's weapons and ammunition procurement was the single biggest defense expenditure in Estonia's history, which shows our country's steadfast dedication to boosting our military capacity. But in order to fight a 21st century war, capabilities for making use of new equipment should also be developed.

Tiina Uudenberg, undersecretary for defense planning at the Ministry of Defense, said at this year's economic security conference that changing Russia's calculations must be a common goal. Agreed, while this requires constant innovation in places other than equipment modernization and new munitions procurements.

As a small country, we should think about how to create strategic balance in our €1.3-billion defense budget, so that next to ammunition and steel, the focus would also be on research and development and the inclusion of new technologies, such as AI, cyberdefense and unmanned systems.

Will to look into the future

The national defense development plan reads that new capabilities must help ensure deterrence and the ability to react to enemy aggression. The 2023-2026 military national defense and deterrence program of the Defense Ministry prescribes achieving these capabilities faster and more efficiently compared to neighboring countries.

Speed and efficiency are side-effects of innovation for which €700,000 has been earmarked in the defense budget. While it is a good start, is it enough for success?

Estonia's incoming defense chief Brig. Gen. Andrus Merilo told ERR in an interview that while tanks have an important role in war and deserve respect, the focus right now should also be on other capabilities.

I'm sure there are those who disagree with Merilo, but events in Ukraine show how technology helps fight against overwhelming odds. Even though Ukrainian units were forced to pull out of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian general staff reported that the Russians lost 364 tanks and 748 other armored vehicles, which clearly demonstrates the efficiency of modern technology.

It is also sensible for a small country to consider balancing its defense budget between ammunition and new technologies, which would make us more effective in a situation of war. The nature of war is changing constantly, which needs to be reflected in our defense strategy.

Innovation requires ability to adjust rapidly

EDF Commander Gen. Martin Herem has previously emphasized the importance of early warning. Therefore, next to ammunition, our biggest strength could be in more effective management of information.

There has been a remarkable abundance of failed communication both at the front and domestically, which has led to different threat assessments.

For example, while the Mossad has been described as one of the most capable intelligence services in the world, Israel was not prepared for Hamas' October 7 offensive that resulted in 1,200 murdered Israelis, heads cut off and hundreds taken hostage. Despite its top-notch surveillance and advantage in ammunition, Israel had to reckon with the consequences of ignoring reports based on preconceived notions and incorrect information.

What happened in Israel showed how while the technology was from the 21st century, there was no state-level preparedness or agreed-upon processes for its use. It serves as a clear lesson for the West that prioritizing efficiency needs to come with the preparedness to fight a war where situations and tools change on a weekly basis.

Ukraine's war with Russia hasn't been called a technology war for nothing. The Ukrainians have been forced to adjust to the use of new technologies as innovation is happening on both sides. The time and willingness to use new technology is what determines victory. Our partners in Ukraine have said that the average life expectancy of new innovation is roughly two weeks. That is how long it takes the enemy to adjust and come up with countermeasures.

Balanced funding can maximize success

Many Estonian defense industry companies have an extraordinary opportunity to test their technology at home and in Ukraine, which has delivered a notable push in terms of research and development.

However, steps following testing, such as upscaling production and export, require bigger investments. The sums needed cannot come just from the R&D budget. We also need a balanced approach in how we allocate our defense spending where immediate needs do not steamroll investments in new solutions.

This does nothing to reduce every company's personal responsibility in raising investments, while it would help boost public and private sector cooperation. Venture capitalists are already betting on new military technologies, while in order to catch bigger fish, we need to put together a clear framework to bridge both sectors' interests and ensures mutual advantages.

Considering Estonia's geopolitical location on NATO's eastern flank, striking a balance between new innovative solutions and munitions is crucial. Our developmental leap cannot happen overnight, while we need to get used to the idea that wars are won by those prepared to contribute to modern solutions and those who can adapt quickly.

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