Raik is deputy director of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS).

Speaking to ERR, Raik said: "The principal problem from the viewpoint of the NATO Eastern Flank nations is that in some western NATO countries, it is excluded as a point of principle that the next NATO secretary general might come from an Eastern Flank nation. This is the issue, and it is difficult to accept essentially."

Raik denied that personalities, of either Rutte or Kaja Kallas, were the issue.

She said: "One by one we have signals coming from the western European capitals to the effect that it is simply not acceptable for the NATO secretary general to hail from one of the Baltic states, since this could set up obstacles in any future restoration of relations with Russia, and/or they are generally too hawkish (Raik used the English term here – ed.)."

"It is this which creates tension, and is really very hard for the countries in our region to accept," she continued.

Rutte's own country, the Netherlands, also currently has an issue in that its defense spending does not meet the NATO baseline requirement of 2 percent of GDP per annum, compared with Estonia's, which has long exceeded that threshold and now surpasses the 3-percent mark.

Given the largest NATO member state, the US, has a presidential election later this year, the lower Dutch spending on defense "could send a negative signal … especially if [Donald] Trump were to become president," Raik continued.

Raik said that on the plus side, the Netherlands has backed Ukraine very much, under Rutte's leadership, and has taken a very principled position towards Russia.

"I don't see any problem on this, and I believe that Rutte would also prove be a good secretary general for NATO in terms of his leadership experience and his qualities. There is no question about that," the expert went on.

Negative signals on why the next NATO chief should not come from Estonia, or for that matter Latvia or Lithuania, do not arise in official discussions, but are coming more from behind the scenes, Raik added.

In any case, Rutte's appointment as the new NATO chief, replacing Jens Stoltenberg, now seems quite certain, she continued.

"He certainly has very strong support from the major NATO states, and there is no strong rival candidate. That Romania has nominated its own candidate (President Klaus Iohannis – ed.) was more a case of its desire to show its dissatisfaction. But as to the Romanian president having any real prospects of getting this position: I don't think so," Raik continued.

Raik said that work is still ongoing on how Rutte can convince those member states, including Estonia, which have not yet taken a clear position. "Plus I think that there is no reason for Estonia to rush here either. Rutte is working towards being an amenable candidate from the point of view of all NATO member states. He has not as yet paid greater attention to the Eastern Flank NATO nations."

Raik would not be drawn on any potential compromise for the Eastern Flank nations in being granted between them the deputy secretary general post. "This option is certainly under consideration, but I can't say anything more about that."

Raik sees problem lying in breakdown of Western unity

Another problem which Raik has identified is a growing trend for rather timid messages coming out of many western nations, which in turn signals to Russia that the collective West is not united in its stance on Russia and its invasion of Ukraine.

"This is certainly a problem - that there are different signals coming from the EU and from NATO, and which serve to demonstrate that western unity is surely not as strong as it might be. Furthermore, a range of different attitudes towards Russia is still the reality," said Raik.

With this in mind, the NATO Eastern Flank members stand out, with their stronger stance on Russia.

These countries "Have gained much more influence and attention to their views in the last two years, but for sure limits remain," she said.

"We can see that western European countries hold the desire somewhere deep down that, some day, they should start normalizing relations with Russia."

"Of course now the constant talk about how dangerous it is to escalate the conflict goes on, or how Germany frets with every step that Russia not be overly irritated or provoked. This surely demonstrates that the western countries have not fully learned from their previous errors," Raik added.

Raik said that policies on Russia, including in the case of Germany, may have changed, but what these policies will be in the future is not entirely clear, and diverse attitudes prevail.

Raik: Allies themselves neutered effectiveness of Macron statement

French President Emmanuel Macron's recent mentioning of the possibility of sending western soldiers to Ukraine could have come with the potential for a major info war victory over Russia, Raik said.

However, this chance was missed when NATO member states themselves started diluted the message in unequivocally ruling out deploying their own troops (officially - ed.) to Ukraine, and in Macron apparently acting unilaterally on this.

Estonia is among those countries who has said it would not be sending its armed forces personnel to Ukraine.

On this watering down, Raik said: "It could have represented a clear signal of deterrence to Russia had it been coordinated and if other countries had not immediately poured cold water on it. This once again showed the weaknesses in unity, the weaknesses in strategic communication."

"Why not send a signal to Russia that we are not ruling anything out, and we are ready to do all that is necessary for Russia to lose the war. This was Macron's message, and not that we are going to send troops to Ukraine tomorrow; nobody is preparing in advance for that right now, and Ukraine has not requested it, either.

"For some reason, many other heads of state felt a great need to stress that we are not going to be sending any troops. In the end, then, the positive effect that this message could have exerted was not achieved."

On France and Macron, Raik said that the president also holds a great desire to be in a leading position in Europe; he has ultimately perceived a new geopolitical reality whereby the restoration of normal relations with Russia is not viable any time soon.

"And in order for France to take a leading position in shaping Europe's security, they have to support Ukraine, they have to take seriously the concerns and security interests of the Central and Eastern European countries. In this respect, France has significantly altered its position," Raik concluded.

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