A  total of 59.8 percent of respondents to the survey, conducted by Norstat and commissioned by conservative think tank the Institute of Social Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), said they support one of the three opposition parties, namely Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) or the Center Party.

Thirty-six percent pledged their support to one of the three coalition partners: The Reform Party, the Social Democrats (SDE) or Eesti 200 (the remainder consists of undecided respondents).

The latter party has 14 seats at the Riigikogu and yet in recent weeks had fallen below the 5-percent threshold required to win seats at any of Estonia's three categories of direct elections – in other words, had the recent Norstat polls translated into electoral results, Eesti 200 would have been left empty-handed.

However, a recent surge in support has pushed Eesti 200's rating back above that level, to just below 6 percent, according to the latest Norstat poll.

A further 29.4 percent of eligible citizens said they support Isamaa, 18.5 percent chose EKRE and 16.8 percent the Reform Party, largely unchanged ratings on the previous week.

These "top" three are followed by SDE on 13.3 percent of support, the Center Party at 11.9 percent, and Eesti 200 as noted at 5.9 percent.

Over the past four weeks, SDE has seen its support fall by 3.7 percentage points, Norstat says, though the pace of that decline has slowed up.

Conversely, in addition to Eesti 200 enjoying a one percentage-point rise in support on the past week, the Center Party has seen its rating rise by 1.3 percentage points over a fortnight, Norstat says.

Center had been hit hard by the departure of several leading MPs in recent months, including its former leader and prime minister, Jüri Ratas, who joined Isamaa.

As for Eesti 200's rise, this could be the aftermath of a bottoming out period going on since last May, when various corruption allegations hit the party, and with the end of the "honeymoon period" after entering office at the national level for the first time.

The other main political parties in Estonia, Parempoolsed and the Estonian Greens, are not represented at the Riigikogu, though they are at local government level.

The line graph below illustrates changes in party support levels since early 2019. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).

The tables following that that show the four-week aggregate figures Erakondade toetusprotsent (4 Nädala koondtulemused ) and weekly figures (Iganädalased tulemused) for each party (Key: Eesti Keskerakond = Center Party; Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond = EKRE; Eesti Reformierakond = Reform; Sotisiaaldemokraatlik Erakond = SDE; Erakond Eesti Rohelised = Greens; Muu = Other parties).

Norstat conducts its polls on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over the preceding four weeks. The current survey covers the four weeks from February 12 to March 8, when just over 4,000 citizens of Riigikogu voting age or above were polled, both online and over the phone, and from a sample weighted to various socio-economic indicators.

Norstat claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of the party in question by support. So for instance Isamaa, as the most-supported party, has a margin of error of +/-1.67 percent in respect of the rating, compared with +/-0.87 percent for Eesti 200, as the least-supported of the six Riigikogu parties.

The next elections in Estonia are to the European Parliament, on Sunday, June 9.

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