A mass information campaign against internal enemies and demonstrative forceful actions can be expected in the aftermath of the attack, whose death toll at the time of writing stands at 133, Saks went on.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS/ISIL) has claimed it committed the atrocity.

Writing on his social media account, Saks, a former foreign ministry secretary general, noted that: "Two weeks ago, the US had issued a very high risk terror attack warning in respect of Russia.

"On Friday evening, a particularly horrific attack took place in Krasnogorsk, near to Moscow at the Crocus City Hall concert venue and shopping mall," he continued.

Saks noted that the building was quickly engulfed in flames, destroying it, indicating that the attackers already knew the most effective way to ignite it. "Locals claim that Rosgvardiya (National Guard of Russia) special forces arrived at the scene only an hour after the incident," Saks added.

"Russian authorities have now commenced a chaotic media campaign which has linked the attacks to Ukraine, yet soon three men of North Caucasus origin were declared wanted."

"However, there is also very different information circulating in the media regarding the identity of the attackers. According to the latest version of events (as of Saturday morning – ed.), they are individuals from Tajikistan, six of them in total, some of whom were arrested in the Bryansk region, while others are still on the run."

"ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack," Saks continued.

Saks added there is no doubt that this is the strike US agencies had warned about, and it is credible that they officially provided information about it to Russian secret services.

As to why this information was not acted upon, Saks wrote: "Taking into consideration the personality of Russia's president, the Russian power structure, and the current geopolitical situation, it can be fairly certain that Russia's head of state did not consider this information sharing to have been motivated out of sincerity, and instead saw it as an attempt to thwart or to influence the presidential elections in Russia. For this reason he also personally announced a few days ago that it constituted disinformation."

"The full consequences of this incident will be hard to assess," Saks added.

The incident reiterates that extremist groups can strike at any moment, Saks added. "The Russian internal security service has failed again, but this is not surprising to anyone in the larger frame. A mass information campaign against internal enemies and demonstrative forceful actions can now be expected. The situation can also be assessed in terms of the Russian security apparatus being exhausted as a result of their costly actions in Ukraine, while such a situation may motivate previously suppressed groups to renew attacks," the expert went on.

Vladimir Putin was returned to a fifth term as President of the Russian Federation last weekend, polling at 88 percent in elections which many western experts condemn as rigged.

Rainer Saks noted that he believes the Russian people may lose respect for the government if a belief that the authorities did not or could not act adequately propagates and takes hold. "If that does not happen, government structures can use the situation to consolidate society around the government. However, the terrorist attack near Moscow significantly neutralized the impact of missile attacks carried out against Ukraine as covered by the international media."

At least 133 people were killed and more than 140 injured when gunmen attacked a packed concert venue on the outskirts of Moscow on Friday evening, the BBC reports, citing Russian sources.

A large fire subsequently engulfed the roof of the complex.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Saturday that four gunmen have been arrested, and that the suspects were trying to flee to Ukraine.

Putin has declared tomorrow, Sunday, a day of national mourning in commemoration of the victims of what he called a barbaric terrorist attack.

Kyiv rejects Russian allegations of Ukrainian involvement in the assault as "absurd."

The US, which as noted had warned of the imminent attack, also says it is credible that ISIS could have been behind it; Russia has not commented on this aspect.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) tweeted Saturday that his ministry will be "following closely the tragic events [which] happened yesterday in Moscow," adding that the "death of civilians is deplorable, and terrorism is unacceptable."

We're following closely the tragic events happened yesterday in #Moscow.

Death of civilians is deplorable & terrorism is unacceptable.

— Margus Tsahkna (@Tsahkna) March 23, 2024

Expert: Russia oil infrastructure attacks by Ukraine already have triumphed

Saks also noted in his social media post that UK business daily the Financial Times (FT) had reported Friday that the US has been exerting pressure on Ukraine to halt its strikes on Russian oil refineries.

"The reasons given include fears of a sharp spike in oil prices on the world market and concerns about Russian counterattacks elsewhere in the world. These reasons as given are debatable, but the publication of such information already creates a suitable information context for potential Russian attacks. Attacks on the Russian oil industry hamper Russia's ability to wage war, both in the shorter and longer terms, while Ukraine's attacks have certainly already affected Russia's ability to supply its army," Saks continued.

"Tonight, drones strikes once again hit the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery near Samara. There is no precise information about the outcome of these attacks yet. If Ukraine initially even wanted to follow US pressure on refraining from attacking more oil refineries, Russia's missile attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure changed that situation," Saks summed up.

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