NATO will mark its 75th anniversary next month, and Luik believes the alliance is currently in very good shape. He said the ongoing war in Ukraine has given it a new lease of life.

"After all, the NATO machine has been there all along. But I would dare to say that it is only now, in the midst of this great war, that it has dawned on all NATO leaders and senior military leaders that all this may actually be needed very soon, that there is a real threat, a real military task, and that we must behave and act in such a way that this machinery, when it is needed, is ready. It seems to me that this final realization has come only after the aggression began," the diplomat told Thursday's "Esimene studio".

NATO is not participating in the ongoing war in Ukraine, and according to some member states, the situation should not be allowed to escalate. However, Luik said it could be done, but not without limits.

"My point is that it is not really worth underlining this [that we don't want to escalate] all the time. Any military conflict, any crisis, is a mutual escalation of both sides. Of course, you have to understand the limits of how far you can escalate. But if you are the side that says all the time you do not want to escalate and irritate the other side – 'I did not give one weapon or the other to Ukraine' –then, in a sense, you are setting yourself up to react and you often lose the initiative. So in that sense, I think we need to escalate, but in a way that would be appropriate, of course," said the former foreign and defense minister.

Luik said Russia can be deterred in Ukraine if the West provides all the weapons it has promised to Kyiv.

"A lot of the weaponry that the West has promised has not even reached Ukraine yet, which is also a very big problem. And, secondly, we need to dramatically increase the technological level, the capacity, of this weaponry. We are talking about long-range missiles, air power, which would give Ukraine such a qualitative advantage that they could win this war" the diplomat said.

"In the meantime, we also have to take into account that our long-term plans are one thing, but Ukraine needs ammunition today, tomorrow. This Czech initiative to procure ammunition, and actually the Estonian initiative to buy all the ammunition that is available on the free international market – and there is actually quite a lot of ammunition available – and send it to Ukraine immediately, is of course also an initiative on our part, a very good positive step," he added.

Luik stressed that Ukraine can win the war if it has significant support from the West. "Increasing arms aid to a scale where Ukraine does not have to hold the line of trenches it currently has, but is able to go on counter-attack," he said.

NATO membership of existential importance to Estonia

On March 29, 2004 – 20 years ago today – Estonia joined NATO. Luik played an important part in Estonia's accession process and between 2002-2003, he was the head of the NATO accession negotiation delegation.

The diplomat said if Estonia had not joined the alliance two decades ago, then it might not have been possible later on.

"Already around 2007, when Vladimir Putin gave his speech in Munich, and 2008, when Putin spoke at the NATO-Russia Council in Bucharest, showed very clearly that Russia is on a very aggressive course and countries like the three small Baltic states would certainly not have been admitted to NATO in that situation," he said.

Luik, a former defense minister, said NATO membership is vitally important to Estonia, especially at this time.

"Whichever way you think about this whole sequence of events, given Putin's interest in restoring the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, the chances of his armed forces would of course have been far better in the case of the non-NATO Baltic states, and in that sense we have no idea where he would have started. So, indeed, NATO membership in today's circumstances is of existential importance for us," he said.

Luik believes Estonia could be at war right now if it were not part of the alliance.

"If we were not in NATO, we might be in the middle of an armed conflict, bombing not Ukrainian houses but Estonian towns and villages. But fortunately, we are in NATO. And being in NATO, of course, we have to do our utmost to ensure that NATO works as a strong machine, is convincing in deterrence and therefore guarantees our security 100 percent of the time," he added.

On attacking Russian oil facilities: Ukraine must use the means it has

While the U.S. believes Ukraine should stop attacking Russia's oil facilities, Luik disagrees.

"I think that Ukraine must use the tools that are at their disposal. And in this case, they have developed very good and very accurate drones, both air and sea, and of course, this is an advantage that Ukraine has to use strategically," he said.

"And, of course, Ukraine, unlike Russia, does not bomb civilian targets, it chooses targets that have a clear military importance, like those same fuel factories. And this has already led to a situation where Russia is facing a major fuel shortage, with gasoline exports banned altogether. So this is not only starting to hit the Russians' wallets, but it is already interfering with the real day-to-day supply of fuel to the war machine. This is an excellent strategic move and I think the Ukrainians should continue it," Luik added.

U.S. will not leave NATO under Trump's leadership

Although U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has been critical of NATO, Luik does not think that he will take the country out of the alliance.

He said it would be difficult because the withdrawal would require congressional approval, which is unlikely to come.

Additionally, Luik said NATO membership is a trump card for the U.S.

"Personally, having been deeply involved in the U.S. and U.S. politics, I do not see any risk that Trump would want to leave NATO. Because NATO is, apart from anything else, an opportunity for the U.S. to have a profound influence on Europe and European politics, so it is really a U.S. trump card to be in NATO. So I think the bigger issue is going to be defense spending," said Luik.

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