Appearing on ERR's election special podcast on Tuesday, to analyze the results of the most recent Kantar Emor survey, Voog said higher voter turnout among undecided voters makes predicting the exact outcome harder.

Again, voter turnout will play a major role in the current election, Voog stressed.

Another consideration is that while voter participation may be higher this time around than at the last European elections in 2019, the percentage of turnout could be lower.

This is because the count includes Estonian citizens living abroad, boosting the electorate by about 100,000 people, whereas they had not been included last time – yet the overall turnout could be lower if, for instance, this demographic brings the overall figure down, or turnout more broadly is lower in any case.

Turnout affects two parties in particular, Voog noted.

"There are two parties – the Social Democrats and Isamaa – whose share [in the election results] increases with higher voter turnout," Voog said.

Another factor is that many supporters of both SDE and Isamaa display weaker party loyalty, whereas voters for the Reform Party and for the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) tend to be more decisive, and will turn out to vote regardless of the circumstances, Voog added.

"The other parties have many undecided voters – they will vote, but with much hesitation."

"However, EKRE and the Reform Party have less uncertainty to deal with – they have their dedicated core of voters," he went on.

"Bearing in mind that the Reform Party has many elderly supporters while EKRE attracts middle-aged and older men who are genuinely interested in politics and are highly likely to vote, this guarantees them the greater success in the event of a lower [overall] voter turnout," Voog elaborated.

Voog agreed with ERR's Indrek Kiisler and Urmet Kook, also appearing on Tuesday's webcast, that despite Isamaa and other opposition parties' efforts to transform the European elections into a vote of no confidence in the current Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 coalition and to highlight domestic political issues, these topics had not significantly impact the campaigning.

This is evidenced by the higher support in the polls for SDE and the Reform Party compared with that for Isamaa and EKRE, Voog noted.

Voog also said he did not believe significant changes in candidate support would be seen in the final week before polling day, Sunday, even if a major scandal were to emerge.

In fact, a scandal this late in the day may even benefit the candidate under scrutiny, he noted.

"Usually, in the initial phase of a scandal, it can even emotionally mobilize the person's supporters, creating an emotional protest which stops their support from dropping," Voog said on this.

As for turnout, the recent Kantar Emor survey asked respondents to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 how likely they were likely to actually vote, and the finding was that those in the 6-7 range boost SDE and Isamaa's votes, when included.

This would significantly alter the distribution of mandates, and the position of the Reform Party would considerably drop," the Kantar Emor expert explained.

Voog agreed with Kook's assertion that with a higher turnout, both those parties would get two seats each (SDE currently has two, Isamaa one), while the Reform Party and EKRE would get one each – ie. Reform would lose a seat.

Kook noted that SDE supporters are often young, a demographic whose voter turnout has historically been lower than that of middle-aged or older people. "For SDE, it is crucial not only in these elections, but at all elections, to ensure their voters are mobilized come polling day," Kook said.

Kiisler argued that participation is also crucial for the Center Party too, as their recent election results have been weaker, again due to low voter turnout among their supporters – a phenomenon which could be seen as early as the 2019 Riigikogu and European elections.

Voog agreed that Center's support has been fluctuating, particularly in Ida-Viru County, a former heartland for that party.

The Koos party and its sole candidate, Aivo Peterson, might sow some confusion with traditional Center voters, often native speakers of Russian, though, Voog said, the "rise" of the pro-Kremlin Peterson should not make a big enough dent in the Center Party's support to push it below the10 percent mark, which would leave the party without a seat.

"The current situation suggests that the Center Party will most likely secure at least one mandate," Voog noted.

Voog also dismissed any idea that people might publicly conceal their intention to vote for Peterson, with his true support only becoming apparent after the polls are counted.

Voog cited Emor's surveys during the 2023 Riigikogu elections, which accurately reflected Peterson's support at that time, he said..

On the margins, Voog said that a recent fall in support for Marina Kaljurand, not only the most-supported SDE candidate but also the most popular overall, may relate to the recent debates.

Support for Kaljurand, a former diplomat, tends to be cross-party – and European elections in Estonia are noteworthy for being more candidate- than party-based – while regular Isamaa or Reform voters, say, may have difficulty with some of Kaljurand's ideological stances.

At the same time, this cross-party image is more beneficial for the SDE in any case, Voog noted.

As for Isamaa and its tri-candidate split (party leader Urmas Reinsalu, sitting MEP Riho Terras, and former prime minister Jüri Ratas), Voog pointed out that Isamaa has often seen low support among women, while the current list has few candidates appealing to women.

The "top" three are men, "and Isamaa has no strong female candidate," he said.

"They lack a candidate who could appeal to women. Jüri Ratas is likely the most prominent among the three because his support is more evenly distributed, not just among a specific narrow group," Voog went on.

Both Kook and Kiisler noted that Ratas has shown the most eagerness to get elected to the European Parliament, given his intensive campaigning, which has been going on for some weeks now, and has included plenty of meeting the people segments, as well as pressing the family dog into service at one point.

As for Eesti 200, currently beleaguered, Voog said that if party co-founder and current education minister Kristina Kallas were to clearly express a desire to leave the ministry and go to Strasbourg, this might result in a rise in support for her.

Eesti 200 is according to Kantar not on course for a single MEP seat, while the same applies to Parempoolsed and the Estonian Greens.

The rest of the broadcast dealt with relative differences in campaign spending and therefore visibility, and the extent to which this will impact voter behavior.

Polling day is June 9, while the European elections advance voting period started on Monday and runs to Saturday evening.

Forecasts have it that EKRE and Center will get one seat each, retaining their status quo, while Isamaa, SDE and Reform are duking it out for the five remaining seats, with each party almost certain to get at least one seat.

At the time of writing, overall turnout was running at a little under 6 percent, albeit early on in the advance voting period.

The official turnout at the 2019 European election was 36.7 percent.

Estonia gained one MEP mandate post-Brexit, meaning there are seven seats being contested for, and the country is treated as a single electoral district.

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