The Social Democratic Party (SDE) and Isamaa are on course to win two seats each in the European Parliament elections, a new poll by Norstat and Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut shows.
In the online survey of 1,302 respondents conducted between June 4-6, SDE was the most popular (21.6 percent support), followed by Isamaa (20.9 percent), Reform (16.8 percent) and EKRE (16.7 percent).
All of the other parties had a rating of below 10 percent: Center (9.1 percent), Parempoolsed (6.9 percent) and Eesti 200 (3.3 percent).
Compared to Norstat's survey at the end of May, Parempoolsed saw the biggest change with an increase of 2.1 percentage points. Eesti 200 decreased by 1.4 percentage points.
Among the candidates, SDE's Marina Kaljurand (14.3 percent), EKRE's Jaak Madison (13.7 percent), and Reform's Urmas Paet (8.7 percent) are the most popular.
The top three are followed by Isamaa's Riho Terras (8.6 percent), Isamaa's Jüri Ratas (6.4 percent) and Center's Mihhail Kõlvart (5.1 percent). The most popular independent candidate is Tanel Talve (1.0 percent).
Commenting on the results, Martin Mölder, associate professor at the University of Tartu's Johan Skytte Institute for Political Studies, said SDE and Isamaa are certain to get two mandates.
"The competition is about who wins the election and who comes second," he said.
He said EKRE and Reform will get one seat, but things are more complicated for Center: "The Center Party's support continues to be at a critical level. If it were a percentage point higher than this poll shows, their mandate in the European Parliament would be secure. If it were a percentage point lower, they would stay at the door."
If Center fails to win a mandate it will go to whichever party comes third, either Reform or EKRE.
Looking at who will win seats, if SDE and Isamaa get two mandates and Reform, EKRE and Center one each, the following candidates will be selected, Norstat's results show: Marina Kaljurand and Sven Mikser (both SDE), Riho Terras and Jüri Ratas (both Isamaa), Urmas Paet (Reform), Jaak Madison ( EKRE) and Mihhail Kõlvart (Center).
If Center does not win a seat, Hanno Pevkur (Reform) or Martin Helme (EKRE) would most likely claim it.
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