"The maximum estimated number of people in defense-related jobs in the coming years is approximately 144,000," the Ministry of Defense noted in a recently published draft law, signed by Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform).

These individuals ensure that cash continues to circulate during a crisis, that local roads remain passable, that ports and airports remain operational and that district heating functions properly. They work at gas stations, pharmacies and telecommunications companies. Many of them are also employed in bakeries, slaughterhouses and large retail stores. Under the current law, these people cannot be called up for military service.

"And we are already seeing a significant impact on our wartime structure, which consists of only 44,000 people," said Susan Lilleväli, deputy secretary general for defense readiness at the Ministry of Defense.

Broad-based national defense requires the contribution of many

The Defense Forces Service Act, adopted in the mid-1990s, already stipulated that, in addition to state and local government leaders, officials from the Ministry of Defense and those holding positions critical to national interests would be exempt from mobilization.

A more specific, though relatively short, list was approved by the government in 2010. Among those exempted from mobilization were key departments of the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Justice, as well as many police officers and about 85 percent of rescue workers. Additionally, each prison was allowed to retain one doctor and one nurse.

The list grew significantly five years later when five more ministries and about a dozen agencies established limits on the number of defense-related positions. Over the past decade, successive legal amendments have caused the number of such positions to grow exponentially.

The Ministry of Defense has calculated that providers of various essential services could currently classify approximately 18,000 positions as defense-related jobs.

And this is just the beginning. Last year, Estonia incorporated the Continuity Directive into its legal framework, and this year, the long-debated Civil Crisis and National Defense Act could reach the Riigikogu. The idea behind these measures is that even in the face of the most severe crisis, the entire network necessary for society to function must remain operational. When mapping out this network, the Ministry of Defense arrived at the figure of 144,000 people.

Surprises might become apparent at the last moment

The Ministry of Defense cannot precisely predict how much this will ultimately impact military national defense, as institutions and companies responsible for essential services have so far officially designated only a few thousand individuals for these roles. Of those assigned to defense-related positions, one in three is subject to military service.

The law requires all essential service providers to conduct a risk analysis and determine the minimum number of personnel they need. Once completed, this analysis must be approved by the Estonian Defense Resources Agency.

Occasionally, the agency returns the risk analysis, suggesting that a gas station or road maintenance provider might be able to function with fewer people. However, once the approval is granted, the agency's hands are essentially tied. This means that an essential service provider could, for example, assign a highly trained squad leader to a defense-related position.

"And then the Defense Resources Agency receives the information that this squad leader is now unavailable," said Susan Lilleväli. "At present, the agency has no way of knowing in advance which individuals will be assigned to which positions."

Once the agency is informed, it has two options. If the Defense Forces urgently need a specific soldier, they can ask the employer to assign someone else to the crisis-related role. Alternatively, they must find a replacement themselves. However, training a single conscript costs more than €25,000.

"For the Defense Forces, it's crucial that units remain intact because our training is unit-based," Lilleväli explained. She added that while the wartime structure includes some redundancy, replacing a squad or platoon leader could temporarily weaken the combat effectiveness of an entire unit. The worst-case scenario is if there is no time left for unit cohesion training.

Lilleväli pointed out that during peacetime, only a few tens of thousands of defense-related positions might be filled.

"But since we know the upper limit is much higher, this poses a significant risk for us. If the security situation deteriorates, people could suddenly be assigned en masse to defense-related positions," she said. "At that point, replacing them within the wartime structure would be extremely difficult."

Ministry wants military roles to take precedence

According to Susan Lilleväli, the Ministry of Defense understands that people in critical sectors must continue working even during wartime. However, she emphasized that Estonia's total workforce consists of approximately 688,000 people.

The ministry believes that, in principle, it would be possible to organize things in a way that the 44,000 people assigned to the Defense Forces' wartime structure and the 144,000 people designated for defense-related jobs in the future do not overlap.

On February 11, the ministry sent a draft bill for approval that would reverse the current priorities, ensuring that military national defense has the first say.

"If a person completes conscription and is assigned to a wartime position, they are essentially 'reserved' for that role," Lilleväli explained.

If an essential service provider wishes to assign the same person to a defense-related job, they would need to obtain permission from the Defense Resources Agency. Lilleväli emphasized that the law would still allow for flexibility.

"If their position in an essential service is extremely critical and specialized, and they are absolutely needed there, then we must find compromises. The question is whether it makes more sense for us to replace this person or if the essential service provider can find an alternative," she said.

Rescuers and police officers to be given an exception

Most of the Defense Forces' wartime structure is constantly being renewed. This means that after completing conscription, units are placed in what is known as the "hot reserve," where they remain for three to six years. Once this period expires, the individual's reservation would be lifted, allowing their employer to designate them for a defense-related position.

However, this does not apply to all reservists. There is a wide range of specialists — from lawyers to logisticians — who would be needed both by essential service providers and the Defense Forces in a crisis. But this is not a new problem for Estonia. Officials and politicians have been warning for years that many individuals may have to wear multiple hats during a crisis. So far, few effective solutions have been found.

"The main idea behind this proposal is to ensure clarity about who can be utilized by whom at any given time," Lilleväli said.

The same draft bill also proposes that, in the future, police officers and rescue service personnel should not be assigned to wartime positions within the Defense Forces that come with a military rank. According to the bill's explanatory memorandum, this exception is necessary to ensure that the police can maintain public order and that rescue workers can continue providing civil protection.

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