In a situation where there are four opposition parties to the coalition's two, the latter only having a slim majority now, SDE, despite having the largest number of seats of an opposition party, not only lost out on the deputy Riigikogu speaker post, but may end up not getting representation via any of the Riigikogu committees' deputy chair positions.

In somewhat jubilant terms, Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) chair Martin Helme said: "Estonia is, in that respect, a normal country — while elsewhere in Europe people are talking about firewalls around the far-right, in Estonia we now have one around the far-left, meaning the Social Democrats."

Helme is likely right about that inasmuch as SDE currently has few allies. SDE's former coalition partners, Reform and Eesti 200, blame that party for the shortcomings of the recently collapsed government.

Meanwhile the other three opposition parties have been criticizing them for the actions of the very same coalition.

Center Party Riigikogu faction leader Lauri Laats called to mind the tactics used in 2023 to break the ongoing opposition filibuster, by the Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 coalition at that time. In Laats' view, this had the effect of gagging the opposition. "Plus the Social Democrats definitely played a big part in that," he said.

"As one politician said, you reap what you sow," Laats noted, referring to EKRE chair Martin Helme's words after Arvo Aller's recent win over SDE's Tanel Kiik in the deputy speaker elections this week.

And that was just the beginning.

For himself Kiik said: "It really seems like a conservative 'pile-on' is forming against the Social Democrats."

"Meaning EKRE, Kõlvart's Center Party, and Isamaa are cooperating to retain their current positions in various committees," Kiik, a former Center Party member, added.

Deputy chair positions not going to SDE

In other words, the largest opposition party in terms of MP numbers (14) may not be able to take a single deputy chair seat on any parliamentary committee. Committee deputy chair seats are traditionally given to opposition party members, while the chairs usually come from coalition parties.

How this works is fairly straightforward. A committee's leadership is re-elected when one of the board members resigns, or when more than half of the committee members vote them out.

The politician then getting the most votes becomes chair, while the runner-up becomes deputy.

At present, Eesti 200 and Reform are initiating reshuffles, wanting to replace SDE leaders with their own MPs across three committees.

Although the slim majority (52 seats at the 101-seat house) the coalition has means some political maneuvering will be needed, the votes will likely pass.

Leadership roles are being rotated within the new coalition across three committees: In fact, the environment and constitutional committees already completed their reshuffles on Thursday this week.

As noted above, deputy chairs get elected alongside chairs. But as long as the conservative bloc Kiik referred to holds together, SDE likely won't get any of those seats.

Kiik said: "The arithmetic is simple: If you add up the Isamaa, EKRE, and Centre Party factions plus those who've joined them, that gives you 30 votes. The Social Democrats have 14."

Kiik was factoring in MPs who are not party members but sit or vote with a particular party.

"This is more than enough to sideline us. This clearly isn't good for parliamentary democracy or working culture," he added.

Seeder: Switching out positions would require the will of all opposition parties

The distribution of opposition committee posts as they stand was agreed on after the last Riigikogu elections a little over two years ago, in March 2023.

Along with deputy chairs, two special committees and various delegation roles were divided based on party faction size.

Much water has gone under the bridge since then, particularly with the amount of defections and floor crossings (with Center and to a lesser extent EKRE the main losers here, Isamaa, and, ironically, SDE, the main net gainers) which have also seen half-a-dozen "window seat" (i.e. independent) MPs emerging.

This is most evident in the case of the Center Party. While Center only has seven MPs now, down from the 16 won at the 2023 election, they still control the anti-corruption committee chair and hold four deputy chair positions on other committees.

Isamaa with 11 seats holds five deputy chair seats and heads the special committee on budgetary control. EKRE has only one deputy chair, with former EKRE member Leo Kunnas serving as deputy on the national defense committee.

Isamaa faction chair Helir-Valdor Seeder said that revising the current set-up would require the willingness of all opposition parties. "If multiple parties don't want it, then there can't be a new deal," Seeder, who Isamaa put forward as Rigiikogu speaker candidate this week, said.

Seeder noted that sidelining SDE wouldn't be an unprecedented act, however.

"For example, when Kaja Kallas removed the Center Party ministers from the government, if memory serves, they weren't given any posts until a new coalition was formed up," Seeder went on, talking about the June 2022 removal of Center from the bipartite Reform-Center alliance which had been in office since early 2021.

Compared with the potential two-year isolation now looming for SDE (i.e. until the next Riigikogu election), Center of course had a lot shorter time to wait.

However, both Laats and Helme believe SDE won't be sitting it out on the bench for the full two years. They are of the opinion that the current Reform-Eesti 200 government will collapse ahead of that.

Then, if any current opposition parties and personalities move into the Stenbock House, committee reshuffles would then be triggered in any case.

How significant is a committee deputy chair position anyway?

Naturally, a deputy chair on a committee isn't the most coveted position there is at the Riigikogu. In terms of influence and visibility, it lags far behind roles such as Riigikogu deputy speaker, faction leader, or chair of a select committee.

That said, a deputy chair can get media attention more easily than a regular MP can. "Whereas the chair typically represents the coalition and its views, the deputy chair is that person who highlights problems in bills or initiatives, and presents alternatives," Kiik outlined.

Laats was of the same mind. "That makes it a very important role," he said.

However, SDE chair Lauri Läänemets said that losing official posts won't curb his party's influence.

He confidently averred: "We still have the largest Riigikogu group, we're still stronger in communication than some parties are, and we have more substance in our group than do some factions."

SDE leader would talk with coalition parties

Even more, Läänemets believes not all is lost despite the ousting from government, in which he had been interior minister, earlier this month. He pointed out that running the committees will become very difficult for the two coalition parties. Although the Reform Party and Eesti 200 can reshuffle their MPs at critical points in time, they have constantly to contend with deadlocks on several committees at a time.

This means that, if they wished to, a unified opposition could block even day-to-day mundane matters like approving meeting agendas. "They could end up in a situation where they can't even start discussing their topics," Läänemets noted.

With this in mind, the SDE chair sees room for opposition-coalition bargaining. Perhaps SDE could pledge not to bug the coalition over trivial matters then, perhaps, the coalition, in return, could help appoint an SDE as deputy chair.

"It's in everyone's interest that the Riigikogu functions in its committees too, so that things progress. The country can't grind to a complete halt," Läänemets added.

Reform Party faction leader Õnne Pillak said that her party too is ready to communicate with everyone on various topics. "Though when it comes to positions, we can talk individually, but I certainly can't make any promises," Pillak qualified.

The coalition's general position according to Pillak is that the opposition should split their Riigikogu positions between themselves. "Since our majority is so narrow, we will have to stick together in our own team," she noted.

'Surprise' on the environment committee

In actuality, one coalition politician had already deviated from this stance during Thursday's environment committee session. But to SDE's dismay, that person sided with the other (i.e. conservative) bloc.

Since the committee's previous chair Igor Taro (Eesti 200) was made new Minister of the Interior, the coalition nominated Yoko Alender (Reform) as the environment committee's new chair. Alender had been climate minister in the previous administration, a post nominally removed by the new government.

Competing for deputy chair were incumbent Andres Metsoja (Isamaa) versus Züleyxa Izmailova (SDE).

The votes for all three posts take place at the same time, and candidates are permitted to vote for themselves.

This was a crucial vote for SDE as they saw the environment committee as being their best shot at securing a deputy chair position. Metsoja was expected to vote for himself and also get that of EKRE's Rain Epler. Izmailova similarly counted on her own vote plus that of fellow SDE Tiit Maran.

This draw could not be broken even with the four Reform MPs on the committee plus Eesti 200's Tarmo Tamm, as the expectation was that all of these would vote for Alender, leaving Izmailova and Metsoja still with two votes apiece. If that had transpired, the deputy chair decision would ultimately have come down to drawing straws.

Then, when the ballots were counted up, Alender found she had four votes not five, as committee chair. Since Metsoja got three votes as deputy, Izmailova two, one coalition MP must have voted for an Isamaa candidate. ERR was unable to determine who that was, however.

Tamm stated that his vote went to Alender, but then so did all the Reform MPs.

Some politicians hinted that maybe the former climate minister made a personal judgment about who she could work better with (i.e. voted for Metsoja), yet Alender categorically rejected that speculation.

On this, Pillak said: "My fellow faction members confirmed that they supported Yoko Alender in the vote for environment committee chair.

So in other words, one of the five coalition MPs, perhaps to put it diplomatically, is holding a small, if intriguing secret to themselves...

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