Urmas Reinsalu, chairman of Estonia's most popular political party, Isamaa, who are your party's top three vote magnets for the local elections in Narva, Estonia's third-largest city? Kristen Michal, prime minister and Reform Party head, who is bringing in the votes for you in Kohtla-Järve, another major city?

These questions could just as easily be put to the leaders of several other parliamentary parties and none would have good answers. Only Center Party chair Mihhail Kõlvart might be able to pull ready-made candidate lists from his back pocket for election battles in Ida-Viru County towns. But for the Center Party, a few cities in the region — Sillamäe and Kohtla-Järve — and Lüganuse Municipality are some of the last remaining strongholds where they still hold power.

A March poll by Turu-uuringute showed that Center Party support in Ida-Viru County had risen to levels close to its glory days — above 50 percent. The move to strip Russian citizens of their right to vote in local elections gives the Center Party a chance to dust off the Russian card and go all in, declaring itself the only party that defends the interests of Estonia's Russian-speaking population.

In the heat of that enthusiasm, all kinds of things can happen. On Monday, the Kohtla-Järve city government held a press conference where Deputy Mayor Alevtina Jermakova, a Center Party member, spoke about the administration's committed efforts to implement the transition to Estonian-language education. At the same time, the city council's deputy chair and Center Party regional head Sergei Lopin posted on social media, on behalf of the party board, that one of the key election issues for Kohtla-Järve was the preservation of Russian-language education.

When this contradictory statement raised eyebrows, that part of the message was quickly deleted. But it's not very convincing to chalk it up to a mere slip-up. Preserving Russian-language education has been a recurring campaign slogan in Ida-Viru cities during multiple local elections, helping the Center Party reel in votes.

The same tactic could still bring in a share of votes, despite the fact that 93 members of the Riigikogu voted to ban Russian citizens — who make up a significant portion of the electorate in Ida-Viru County — from voting in local elections. Let's not forget that in the most recent elections where only Estonian citizens could vote, the biggest winners in Ida-Viru County were the Center Party, detained politician Aivo Peterson and independent candidate Mihhail Stalnuhhin.

While local elections are different in nature and voting systems from national or European elections, the results of Riigikogu and European Parliament elections still reflect the mood of voters in Ida-Viru County.

It doesn't make sense to try to forecast the outcome of municipal elections in detail until it's clear which parties or electoral alliances will be running in which municipalities, and which well-known local figures they will include on their lists. In Ida-Viru County, votes in local elections tend to be cast primarily for individual candidates.

Voter turnout in the region may drop even further if Estonian passport holders, disheartened by the loss of voting rights for Russian citizens, choose not to vote at all.

But it could also go the other way — if someone makes representing the interests of Russian-speaking voters a central theme, finds a few charismatic candidates in each city and runs a solid campaign. In that case, even an electoral alliance or party that isn't particularly friendly toward Estonia as a state could see some success. That wouldn't actually improve life for people in Ida-Viru's cities by pitting them against the rest of the country — just as local Center Party politicians failed to do over the course of nearly 25 years. But a one-time electoral win is certainly possible.

There's one reliable remedy to prevent that outcome. The parliamentary parties that have abandoned local politics in Ida-Viru County need to start taking action. So far, their attitude has been that since they don't get many votes there anyway, it's not worth the effort.

But as the electorate changes, the share of their potential supporters should increase — though those votes won't appear out of thin air. Some major parties haven't even participated in local elections in various Ida-Viru cities. Or they've shown up as a joke, submitting short candidate lists where most nominees have virtually zero vote-getting potential.

Party leaders talk about how important the whole of Estonia is, but during local elections, parties are primarily focused on Tallinn, where they direct their attention and almost all of their campaign funds. Cities in Ida-Viru County might as well not exist.

Take the Isamaa website, for example. It lists contact persons by name for all regions — except Narva, where only a general party email address is provided. It's no surprise that with this kind of attitude and inaction, the more active locals prefer to rally behind electoral alliances instead.

Elections are, of course, important. But just as important — especially in Ida-Viru County — is having active party members in larger towns and municipalities who can explain, at the grassroots level, to coworkers, neighbors or gym buddies, why their party pursues certain policies nationally and how those affect people's everyday lives.

This kind of engagement helps reduce alienation and brings the mindset of people in Ida-Viru County closer to that of the rest of Estonia. In contrast, it's a chilling thought when Estonia's parliamentary parties admit they don't have any real presence in the major cities of Ida-Viru County.

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