Since President Donald Trump returned to office in January, rumors have swirled that U.S. forces could be withdrawn from Europe. So far, nothing has been decided – and U.S. officials have denied any changes – but the rumors persist.

This week, it was reported, based on anonymous sources, that 10,000 troops sent to Europe after the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022 will be withdrawn, mostly from Poland and Romania.

Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said the Pentagon has not informed any NATO eastern flank countries of a troop relocation.

However, the Trump administration is reviewing decisions made during Joe Biden's term. The minister said there are clear political intentions to change them.

"It really depends on what the overall force composition in Europe will be. If, overall, it is redirected more toward the Indo-Pacific region, which is to say, the Pacific area, where the Trump administration has said it wants to increase its footprint, then that could also affect the European force structure, but we just do not know that at this point," Pevkur said.

Tony Lawrence, a researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security in Tallinn, believes a reduction in troop numbers in Poland would affect NATO's entire eastern flank.

"U.S. troops in Poland have responsibilities across the eastern flank. It would mean that U.S. forces would find it much more difficult to respond to certain contingencies, rapidly, across the eastern flank. And it would send out a deterrent message too. It would signal to adversaries that the U.S. is maybe less committed to European security than we would want it to be," he told "Aktuaalne kaamera."

Security expert Rainer Saks sees the presence of U.S. forces in Poland as a very strong psychological defense.

"Another important factor is air defense, and there are many such technical components that the U.S. is able to provide with relatively less effort, likely also intelligence and other such areas," he said.

Europeans are not capable of taking over all of the tasks carried out by U.S. forces, he said. This issue must be taken seriously, because the American presence will inevitably decrease at some point, especially units that require greater spending.

Polish president says US troop relocation 'was no secret'

In Poland, some troops are being redeployed within the country from Jasionka, a logistics hub for Ukrainian aid. However, President Andrzej Duda denied that the forces are leaving during a visit to Tallinn on Wednesday.

"I've been hearing this for a long time," Duda said. "Please stay calm and wait for actual decisions."

He also warned against falling for speculation and disinformation, saying: "There are various actors involved, including those who want to spread disinformation and undermine our defence."

Both Pevkur and Duda, said it was previously known that the troops would be moved from Jasionka. The agreement was made last year that NATO and European countries would take on greater responsibility.

"Poland is a great host. In the past few years, we have moved to more permanent facilities in the country," said Gen. Christopher Donahue, commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and Africa. "After three years at Jasionk, this is an opportunity to right-size our footprint and save American taxpayers tens of millions of dollars per year."

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