NATO's political center of gravity lies in the cohesion of the Alliance. While NATO adopts a 360-degree approach, Russian aggression in Ukraine and hybrid attacks on the Baltic states have arguably shifted the physical center of gravity to its Northeastern flank.

Today, artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging disruptive technologies (EDTs) are pivotal in shaping strategic and military thinking. Military modernization centered on technological advancements will remain a crucial aspect of great power competition and NATO's adaptation to the evolving security environment of the 21st century.

Kestutis Paulauskas warns against complacency in the cognitive domain and emphasizes NATO's efforts to stay ahead of the rapidly evolving technological landscape. The security environment shifted dramatically when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In response, NATO recognizes the urgency of advancing technology and integrating it across all domains. At NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington last summer, Allies endorsed the 2024 report on Innovation and Emerging Disruptive Technologies, setting a clear direction for the Alliance to develop a NATO Rapid Reaction Plan ahead of the upcoming summit in The Hague this summer.

The EU has made significant strides in responding to the contemporary security environment, ensuring that it adapts with a long-term strategy to address emerging threats. In its recently published Joint White Paper on European Defense Readiness 2030, the EU acknowledges the presence of serious threats and declares that the post-Cold War is over, marking a fundamental shift in the security landscape. The White Paper outlines both short- and medium-to-long-term objectives, demonstrating a clear understanding of the dramatic shifts in the security environment and the likely changes ahead.

The short-term objective focuses on continued support for Ukraine, while the medium-term objective aims to address capability gaps and provides direction for strengthening the defense technological and industrial base. The document highlights the global technology race and recognizes that technology will be a key factor in geopolitical competition.

As a result, the EU has undergone a shift in its security thinking. NATO and the EU share common values and many members. Both organizations have a long history of cooperation and have taken further steps in recent years to strengthen their collaboration, culminating in the signing of the third Joint Declaration on EU-NATO Cooperation in 2023.

One of the most pressing contemporary areas where technology serves as a deterrent is the maritime domain. Both NATO and the EU have made significant strides in addressing hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea, particularly incidents such as the sabotage of critical undersea infrastructure. A series of cable-cutting incidents, many of which suggest external influence, have increased in frequency since 2021, particularly following February 2022.

Finnish investigators determined that the Chinese-registered ship Newnew Polar Bear, operated by a Russian crew, damaged two subsea cables and a gas pipeline with its anchor. While this vessel is part of the shadow fleet, it was followed by the Sevmorput, which is a nuclear-powered Russian government-owned merchant ship. This is part of a broader increase in hybrid attacks against European and U.S. targets orchestrated by Russia and led by the GRU.

The frequency and pattern of such incidents prompted Estonia and Finland to request NATO's assistance after the EstLink 2 submarine power cable was damaged in December 2024. The suspected culprit was a vessel named Eagle S, believed to be part of the Russian shadow fleet. Allies convened just days at NATO HQ, during the holiday period, and swiftly decided to enhance their presence in the Baltic Sea.

When examining AI in military and defense technology, particularly in the context of strengthening NATO's northeastern flank, it is crucial to consider both technological advancements and the strategic rationale behind their use. NATO's three core tasks — deterrence and collective defense, military crisis management and security cooperation — have been outlined in the 2022 Strategic Concept. To enhance resilience in Europe, NATO and the EU have strengthened their Structured Dialogue on Resilience by fully embedding the EU-NATO Task Force, with the task of making critical infrastructure, supply chains and technology more resilient in light of the evolving security environment.

NATO and the EU are working together to enhance maritime security in the Baltic Sea through technological solutions. NATO nations on the northeastern flank are collaborating on the integration of AI technologies. In response to the recent hybrid incidents in the Baltic Sea, the multinational Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) has launched Nordic Warden, an AI-based system designed to monitor the movement of the Russian shadow fleet and assess threats to undersea cables. Nordic Warden uses an AI-driven program that analyzes data from various sources to assess the risk associated with each vessel entering areas identified as potential sabotage zones. Once identified, a warning is sent to JEF members and other allied nations. This action reflects the quick thinking required to counter activities where solutions are still being developed.

Currently, there are 22 identified areas of interest being monitored by the JEF. The challenge is both preventative and attributive. Attributing hybrid attacks is difficult and strategies involving new, cutting-edge technologies will be increasingly employed.

Allied nations are addressing the challenge of maintaining cognitive superiority in various ways as well. NATO launched the Baltic Sentry program, which combines the efforts of frigates, maritime patrol aircraft and a fleet of naval drones. Enhanced surveillance and reconnaissance are, of course, not limited to the maritime domain. Emerging technologies are being deployed across multi-domain operations (MDO).

AI is being leveraged to enhance surveillance systems along NATO's northeastern flank, particularly in the Baltic region. Autonomous drones, AI-driven satellite imaging and surveillance robots could help provide real-time data on potential threats. AI algorithms are already being used to analyze data for potential threats, such as missile launches, aircraft movements and ground-based movements near NATO's northeastern borders (e.g., Russian activity in the region). Early detection enables a faster response, helping NATO forces stay ahead of potential threats.

The EU has also taken action to address the situation. The European Commission will allocate close to one billion euros to enhance surveillance of undersea cables as well as establish a fleet of repair vessels. This complements actions taken by NATO as some members deployed frigates, patrol aircraft and naval drones in the Baltic Sea with the aim of protecting critical infrastructure.

The use of AI to strengthen NATO's northeastern flank focuses on improving speed, efficiency and precision in defense operations while addressing evolving security challenges in the region. The strategic application of AI could significantly enhance NATO's deterrence capabilities, but it will also require careful consideration of ethical, legal and operational issues. European allies are currently preparing for significant enhancements to their deterrence postures, with AI and technology playing an increasingly important role. This will be reflected in the growth of the European military industry, offering an opportunity for the European tech sector to thrive.

This work/research has been funded by the REMIT project, funded from the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement No 101094228.

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