Ambassador: What happens in the Baltic immediately affects the High North

While Norway and Estonia may seem far apart, the two countries share many similarities when it comes to defense and their eastern neighbor. In short, what happens in the Baltic effects the Arctic, and vice versa. ERR News spoke with Norwegian Ambassador Marius Dirdal about the security situation in the High North, Russia and Norway's activity in the Baltics.
Norway is a founding member of NATO and was the only member state bordering Russia for 50 years until Poland joined the alliance in 1999 — taking the border to Kaliningrad — followed by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 2004.
The country contributes forces to the EFP (NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence — ed.) in Lithuania and Poland and regularly holds military exercises in northern Norway, in which the Estonian Navy participated last year. NATO recently opened an amphibious warfare center on the country's west coast.
Estonia and Norway's land borders are almost the same length, 135.6 km compared to 198 km. They also share the same eastern neighbor and the security situation has been heating up on both fronts since at least 2022. But that's where the similarities end. Norway and Russia's demarked sea border is 1,750 km.
While northern Norway — the High North — seems far away, Dirdal said events in the Baltic Sea never occur in isolation. The Russian port of Murmansk is home to Russia's Northern Fleet — and strategic nuclear arsenal which is in a constant state of readiness — and is close to the border.
Russians keep both ballistic missile submarines and facilities for storing nuclear warheads on the Kola Peninsula. These submarines, with nuclear warheads, are a central strategic resource, part of the nuclear triad, which is crucial to Russian strategy, the ambassador said in an interview in mid-December.

If Estonia and Finland should ever close the Gulf of Finland to Russia's vessels due to a security threat — something discussed by the head of the Estonian Defense Forces — the Russian Navy's only room for maneuver is in the Arctic (with the exception of Kaliningrad.)
"The Baltic Sea has become extremely difficult for them, extremely narrow in a sense, surrounded by what they perceive as the enemy. So whatever happens in the Baltic Sea area will immediately have an effect on the Arctic. So we see that there is a very strong link," the ambassador said.
Norway has also seen a rise in hybrid attacks and grey zone aggression in recent years. Ship tracking data shows civilian ships are mapping its infrastructure, the air force is regularly scrambled to respond to Russian military jets flying close to Norwegian air space without prior warning, while the country has also experienced GPS jamming.
But while Estonia hiked its defense spending to reach NATO's 2 percent target in 2014, Norway only reached it this year. Its current spending is 2.1 percent. Last month, in Tallinn at the Joint Expeditionary Force summit, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said this will rise, but gave no timeline and stressed he would not pressure other countries to ramp up their spending either.
While the summit missed Estonia's targets for defense spending, an agreement was struck by 12 countries on Russia's shadow fleet, old and underinsured vessels used to transport oil. Hundreds of ships are being used for this purpose in the Baltic and High North. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal called the situation an "environmental disaster" waiting to happen. The only questions are when and where it happens, he said.

The countries agreed to work together to check insurance documents. The issue will be discussed again later this week by NATO members after breakages to undersea cables by a suspected shadow fleet ship on Christmas Day.
"We have the other end of the shadow fleet problems," the ambassador said, highlighting the areas on a map where Russia extracts gas and oil close to Norwegian waters.
"The ships collect Russian oil in the Russian Arctic and then travel south close to the Norwegian coastline. We have the same issues in the Arctic as in the Baltic Sea — only at another end of Europe," he explained.
Asked if Russia is concerned about the environmental impact, he said: "Not very, no."
The ambassador described bilateral relations with Russia as "shut down". Unlike Estonia, Norway still has an ambassador in Moscow and Russia has a representative in Oslo. There is minimal communication among the border and coast guards, but it is there in case of emergencies. He said the commanders of both defense forces have a "hotline" that is tested regularly.

Asked if this looks like the red telephones you see in movies, Dirdal laughed: "No, it's a Skype connection. It's very boring. There has been no contact through this hotline since 2014, but they actually test that it works. So they can reach each other if something happens."
But one area of cooperation that has almost ground to a halt in recent years is the Arctic Council, a forum for members in the region to tackle common problems and develop best practices and recommendations for safe and sustainable operations. Russia was all but frozen out in 2022 after it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Members no longer meet in person and the rotating chairmanship is handed over virtually.
But the ambassador said the grouping is still "useful." But one feature of the council is its official observer nations – interested countries not located in the region. Estonia lost a bid to join in 2021. Dirdal said the process is now in total "deadlock."
"The Arctic Council is a consensus organization, So in order to allow new observers in, you would have to achieve consensus. So now we're stuck with what we have. There is no chance of getting anyone in because Russia would say no to the ones we might be positive to."
One country that is interested in joining the forum is China: "It has claimed the status as a near-Arctic state, that's what they call themselves now." Norway can see that Moscow and Beijing are already cooperating in the region, the ambassador said. "The Russian and Chinese coast guard have entered into a into cooperation."

"So the Chinese are increasingly active in the area. They have so far have not been in breach of international maritime law — as far as we can tell — but we expect them to be more active in the future as well," he said.
If speculation about Russia and China working together in the Baltic Sea to break undersea cables turns out to be true, this sort of scenario could also occur in the Arctic and North Seas.
"We have, of course, very important cables going between our territories, I mean mainland Norway and Svalbard. So we know that the Russians are interested in those," he said.
There are areas in the High North bordering Russia where NATO exercises are not held. While some have suggested this policy should change, the Norwegian prime minister has stood firm. Dirdal stressed "stability and predictability."
Norwegian troops and everything [can still] go there and it's a unilateral decision that we can change at any time we want," he stressed, adding some of the discussion around the subject is "often exaggerated."
"It's important for us to have stability there and we are pretty sure it's important for the Russians too to have a stable situation because they have their strategic resources there. So we believe it's a wise policy."

Dirdal, who has been in the role for two years, said part of his job is to make sure Norway's positions and situations are known by outsiders.
He said it is "extremely important" that there is more awareness in Estonia and Norway of what is happening in both countries. The JEF (Joint Expeditionary Force) summit was also a good opportunity for people to get a wider understanding of regional defense, he added.
But one area where no encouragement is needed is the defense forces. The Norwegian armed forces are also part of the eFP in Lithuania and Poland.
Approximately 150 soldiers from the Norwegian Army's Brigade Nord are stationed in Lithuania as part of the German-led multinational battalion around 90 km outside the capital Vilnius. The current contingent is Norway's 14th since 2017.
The Norwegians train and exercise together with soldiers from Belgium, Czechia, Germany, the Netherlands and the host country Lithuania. They also participate in exercises across the region.
But Dirdal says: "The troops that we have in Lithuania, they are there for the region. Our troops in Lithuania are there also for Estonia in a sense and that's something that I forget and everybody else forgets it, of course, because they're not here."
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Editor: Michael Cole, Marcus Turovski