In March, the number of tourists fell sharply compared to the same time last year, and the number of Finnish visitors also declined, according to accommodation data from Statistics Estonia.

Speaking to ERR, Paavo Nõgene said the first quarter of the year was difficult, and the drop in overnight stays at accommodation establishments could be interpreted in two ways: either Finns are increasingly opting for same-day trips to Estonia or there are other underlying reasons.

"Unfortunately, Estonia has become — and continues to become — a more expensive destination. Still, we're fortunate that Finns are continuing to visit. They haven't disappeared entirely, but they are likely coming less often than they used to," Nõgene said.

He noted that the benchmark remains the pre-crisis period, namely 2019, since all the years that followed have been very different, shaped by the pandemic, the war and other factors.

"It's also true that the Finnish economy is not doing particularly well at the moment. So Finns are definitely price-conscious, making their decisions very carefully and probably aren't coming to Estonia as frequently as before," said the Tallink CEO.

He added that passenger volumes on the Tallinn-Helsinki ferry route have not yet returned to 2019 levels, with about 20 percent still to recover.

The number of people traveling from Estonia to Finland has also declined, mainly due to a sharp drop in the number of workers commuting to jobs in Finland. Nõgene explained that the Finnish construction sector has not started to grow again. Meanwhile, there are signs of revival in Sweden's construction industry: Estonian exports of building materials to Sweden have resumed, which is a clear indicator. In Finland, however, the issuance of new construction permits remains in a slump.

"This clearly affects the people who used to travel regularly — those who left on Monday, came back by the end of the week, worked in Finland. That group is definitely smaller now than it was before COVID," Nõgene noted.

Despite the challenges, Tallink is approaching the summer with optimism. As the weather improves, people will start to travel. Nõgene pointed out that travel from Finland to Estonia picks up significantly around major holidays and summer itself is like one long holiday.

"In Finland, we're really talking about six active weeks during the summer — between the end of the school year and its start. So the most active travel period is definitely July and the first ten days of August," he said. "After that, there's always a bit of a drop-off as school resumes in Finland, so this six-week cycle is currently critical for all tourism sector businesses in Estonia that depend on Finnish visitors."

According to Nõgene, the company is expecting solid passenger numbers over the summer and hopes to see an increase in the number of people coming to Estonia.

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