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November ratings: Newcomer Estonia 200 may jeopardise Reform election win

The Reform Party is losing support to newcomer Estonia 200.
The Reform Party is losing support to newcomer Estonia 200. Source: ERR

Estonia 200, which was officially registered as a new political party this month, has stolen enough support from the Reform Party, Estonia's most popular opposition party, that support for the latter has now fallen significantly behind that of the ruling Centre Party. The coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) has also suffered a blow to its support, falling close to the 5% election threshold.

This month, Turu-uuringute AS for the first time included Estonia 200, which voted to register as a political party on 3 November, in its party ratings survey. The newcomer's debut on Estonia's political scene has stolen a significant amount of support from two liberal parties — the Reform Party and the SDE.

If the Riigikogu elections were to take place tomorrow, 33% of voters would vote for the Centre Party, it appears from the results of a survey commissioned by ERR and conducted by Turu-uuringute AS. Last month, Centre's support stood at 30%.

Meanwhile, the Reform Party, whose level of support more or less equalled that of its rival last month, has lost a significant amount of support, dropping from 28% in October to 23% in November.

Support for the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) stood at 15%, down from 17% in October.

Estonia 200 made its ratings debut at fourth place, earning the support of 8% of voters.

The new party stole a significant amount of support not just from Reform, but also the SDE, support for whom dropped from 12% in October to just 7%.

Support for the coalition Pro Patria Party remained unchanged at exactly the election threshold, or 5%.

Below the election threshold

Coming in below the election threshold would be the non-parliamentary Estonian Greens with 3% as well as the opposition Free Party with 1% of the vote. The Biodiversity Party was not included in Turu-uuringute AS' November survey as it had not registered as a political party at the time of the survey.

Another 2% of those surveyed supported various other parties, and 3% supported independent candidates.

Support for the current government coalition, which consists of the Centre Party, the SDE and Pro Patria, totalled 45%, while support for the opposition, which currently includes Reform, EKRE and the Free Party, totalled 39%.

From 31 October-13 November, Turu-uuringute AS interviewed more than 1,000 voting-age Estonian citizens in their homes. The answers of those who indicated no preference were eliminated from the outcome so as to make it as comparable as possible to the outcome of a Riigikogu election. The margin of error does not exceed ±3.10% per 1,000 respondents surveyed. 

The 2019 Riigikogu elections are scheduled to take place on 3 March.


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Editor: Aili Vahtla

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