Ratings: EKRE increases support, Isamaa falls below electoral threshold

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EKRE leader and finance minister Martin Helme (left) with his father, former party leader and interior minister, Mart.
EKRE leader and finance minister Martin Helme (left) with his father, former party leader and interior minister, Mart. Source: Siim Lõvi /ERR

According to a recent, support for the coalition EKRE saw a small increase over the last week, support for coalition partner Isamaa dropped below the electoral threshold of 5 percent.

The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat over the last week on behalf of MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, shows that if elections were today, 33 percent of respondents would choose opposition Reform Party, 22.1 percent would elect coalition leader Center Party and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) would garner 16.4 of the votes.

The largest change over the previous week came in the support for EKRE, who saw a 1.1 percent increase in public support.

Analyst Martin Mölder said: "It is very likely that the aggregate support for EKRE over the past four weeks will continue growing next week."

The first three are followed by opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 9.7 percent, non-parliamentary Eesti 200 sits at 7.5 percent and Isamaa, who have again dropped slightly below the electoral threshold, to 4.7 percent.

"It is clear that new life needs to be breathed into the party in order for the latter to improve its position; however, we can see that the biggest news about Isamaa in recent times -- the creation of internal opposition within the party in the form of the Parempoolsed (Right-wingers) Association -- has not been able to achieve that, rather the contrary. Support for Isamaa exhibited some signs of improvement from spring until the end of summer; however, the trend has reversed from the end of summer," the researcher said.

Support for the Estonian Greens stood at 3 percent, according to the survey and support for the Estonian Party for the Future (TULE), a result of a merger between the Estonian Free Party and the Biodiversity Party, saw 0.9 percent over the last week.

Mölder pointed out that the share of respondents without a party preference remains exceptionally high.

"If elections were to be held today, voter turnout would be 73 percent. In reality, it would be extremely unlikely and the most logical explanation to this is that many citizens who will likely not vote in the next Riigikogu elections, are now saying that they have a party preference. The Reform Party gains most from these presumed supporters, and Estonia 200, too, to some extent," he added.

The coalition parties are supported by 43.2 percent of respondents and 42.7 percent would pick one of the two opposition parties, if elections were to take place right now. While opposition parties saw their cumulative support rise above that of the coalition parties, the latter have again taken over over the last week, in terms of public opinion.

The latest results show the aggregate result for Norstat's surveys in the period of September 15 - October 13 and a total of 4,003 voting age Estonian citizens. The standard error is +/- 1.46 percent.

Editor's note: This article was updated to add analysis by Martin Mölder.


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Editor: Kristjan Kallaste

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