EDF: ATACMS are not a magic wand for Ukraine
No single weapons system is enough to change the course of the war in Ukraine, said Col. Mart Vendla, deputy head of the EDF Headquarters on Friday. He said Russia is still trying to capture more territory before U.S. military aid arrives.
Speaking at the weekly press conference at the Ministry of Defense, Vendla said Russia is trying to take advantage before Western weapons arrive. However, Russian forces have made no big breakthroughs over the last week, and none are in sight.
Fighting is most active around Chasiv Yar, but it does not appear that it will fall quickly, Vendla said. There is also intense fighting around Marinka and Avdiivka.
ATACMS not a magic wand
Speaking about the impact of ATACMS provided by the U.S., which can travel 300 kilometers, Vendla said missiles with such a range will slightly change the war theater.
However, he also stressed that experience shows one weapon system alone will not change everything as it does not take long for Russia to reorganize its activities. Then its impact will be reduced.
"All ammunition contributes to the overall event. But it's like any other new weapon system: each side develops its own technical parameters, tactics and procedures [in response]," he stressed.
Asked if it is possible to destroy the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea with mainland Russia, Vendla stressed this is one of the best-protected pieces of infrastructure and a complex attack involving various weapon systems would need to take place.
The amount of explosives carried by ATACMS missiles may not be sufficient to break the bridge's piers or girders. Maritime drones and other attack assets, would also be needed he said.
Speaking about the strength of the defense lines being built in Ukraine, Vendla said that they can buy Ukraine more time, but their construction requires very large resources, which Ukraine, unlike Russia for example, did not have when it built the so-called Surovkin line.
Vendla stressed that ammunition, the addition of new troops and the construction of fortifications are key issues for Ukraine at the moment to achieve military success, as the latter would make it possible to make the front line thinner.
EDF Commander Gen. Martin Herem, who also participated in the press conference, said defense lines can still be wiped out by artillery. "Firepower is still decisive," he emphasized.
Herem said using ATACMs and HIMARS to destroy the Kerch Bridge would be unwise and too costly. It makes more sense to use them on other valuable targets, such as Russian army command posts, warehouses, or even military airfields.
Vendla also highlighted Russia's sharp increase in the use of glide bombs this year, which are sent from Su-34 and Su-35 warplanes 50-60 kilometers from the front, from where Ukrainian air defense cannot reach them.
He highlighted the example of Avdiivka, a territory about five by six kilometers in size, where Russia dropped about 250 bombs a day during the height of the offensive – this was worse than artillery fire, considering that such bombs contain 250 and 500 kilograms or even 700 kilograms of explosives.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Helen Wright