Ukraine's Ministry of Defense announced Friday that Russian ground forces had entered Kharkiv Oblast in northeastern Ukraine that day, and that fighting was ongoing. According to Kannik, this couldn't have come as a surprise to Ukraine.

"The fact that the Russians are planning an attack on the Kharkiv region has been predicted for the past month, month and a half by very different people via very different sources, states and institutions," the ICDS chief told ERR. How serious this attack will prove to be, however, is still too early to say.

"What we're seeing right now is nonetheless a relatively small number of units' attempt to cross the border," he said. "It's more reminiscent of the Ukrainian operation that they conducted once last year and once this year – where representatives of the so-called Freedom of Russia Legion were operating on the Russian side of more or less the same area. You could call this diversionary group activity."

As for how big the Russian reserves are behind this attack, according to Kannik, estimates vary. "The Ukrainians estimate that there currently aren't enough reserves there to launch a large-scale attack," he noted.

Even so, he acknowledged that this attack is still drawing Ukrainian resources away from other areas.

The ICDS chief explained that should the threat of Russia attacking Kharkiv not just from the east but also from the north increase, that means that Ukraine will also have to direct more of its own reserves there.

"At the same time, of course, if Russia wants to do anything there, they themselves have to bring in their own reserves from elsewhere as well," he added.

He suggested that this attack may to some extent be retaliation for the Russian legion fighting in the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian territory.

"To some extent certainly, I think, as one element of Russian doctrine is that if they do something to us, then we must respond at least in kind," Kannik said.

"But on the other hand, it's certainly intended to force Ukraine to disperse its forces and resources," he continued. "But it's also part of broader psychological warfare and strategic communication. If Russia can show that, for the first time since fall 2022, they can manage to put serious pressure on Kharkiv again, that in turn would be a certain sign in this war."

The ICDS director said that Ukraine has been warning about this.

"And the delays that occurred in the U.S. Congress are likewise part of the reason that this situation could this far," he pointed out. "If that aid hadn't arrived for another few months now, then I'm afraid it would have indeed become the case by fall that both Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv could have come under serious pressure. Right now, I don't see the Russians having any real chance of taking major Ukrainian cities."

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