Over the last decade, the IT and communication sector has been the poster child for the Estonian labor market. It has had the highest salaries and the number of employees has constantly risen – even during times of crisis. The sector also has the greatest shortage of educated labor and the highest ambitions for growth.

However, data from the employment register shows that over the last 18 months, the number of jobs in the field has decreased significantly. 

As of the end of June, 36,000 workers are registered in the field. The majority – 22,000 – are registered under programming and consulting activities. Between 2019 and 2023, approximately 7,700 new jobs were created in this category.

But over the last year, 600 fewer people are registered as working in this area. The decline has mostly occurred in the past six months.

Young programmers placed by middle-aged workers

Kadri Rootalu, data researcher of Statistics Estonia, said it is noticeable that the biggest changes have taken place among young employees.

"While in the past, the number of jobs in computer programming was growing because of younger workers, this growth has slowed down over the past year and the number of young employees in the 20–29 age group has decreased in this field," she noted.

For example, in June 2022, there were 6,130 young people aged 20-29 working in the field, but this had dropped to 5,070 by June 2024.

During the same period, the number of workers in the 40 and 69 age group increased from 5,720 to 6,880.

Young top specialists are leaving

The number of young top specialists (e.g. software developers, application programmers, system analysts and administrators, etc.) has decreased the most. The number fell from 3,920 in June 2023 to 3,370 in June 2024.

Amongst other age groups, the number of top specialists has not decreased so rapidly, and there has been an increase in the number of 40-59-year-olds in the sector.

Rootalu said the change is closely aligned with Estonia's population structure, and the smaller birthrate in the 1990s. In 2019, there were 153,000 people in the 20-29 years category, but this fell to 136,000 on January 1, 2024, But 10,000 people have been added to the 40-49 years group in this time.

"We can assume that young people who started in the field of computer programming in earlier years have simply got older," Rootalu said. 

However, the question of why the number of young employees in programming activities has fallen specifically in the last two years, when the proportion of young people in the population, in general, has been in decline for quite some time, remains unanswered. 

"There is nothing that stands out about those who have left the world of computer programming other than the fact that they are young people. Around two-thirds of them are citizens of Estonia and half of them have a higher education degree," Rootalu added.

Young programmers moving from IT sector to other areas

Wednesday's "Aktuaalne kaamera" spoke to experts in the sector to find out what is behind the changes. They said the figures are not necessarily an indication of the sector's decline, but rather an expansion into other areas.

Ivo Lasn, head of Playtech, said young IT specialists have not necessarily given up programming, but have moved sectors.

"Many young programmers work in companies that are not traditional IT companies but belong to another sector, such as banking or energy," he told the show.

"The last couple of years have been a bit tougher and there has not been less hiring and job creation, but the forecast for the second quarter of this year shows that the number of employees is slowly picking up again."

TalTech Vice-Rector Hendrik Voll said IT is still such a popular subject that the university plans to increase the number of spaces on its courses.

He also explained that young people still use their professional education but in other fields.

"We are seeing more and more computer science graduates finding jobs in engineering, where automation and digitization of industry is on the rise," Voll said.

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