Leo Kunnas: Ukraine was expecting Russia to redeploy troops to Kursk
Ukraine had expected Russia to redeploy troops from crucial front lines the Kursk oblast following the incursion, but this has not occurred, Riigikogu MP and reservist Colonel Leo Kunnas said.
Kunnas made his remarks in an appearance on ETV special broadcast "Ukraina stuudio," which has been running since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.
Host Reimo Sildvee asked whether Monday's large-scale drone strike by Russia on Saturday was timed to coincide with Ukraine's independence day and in retribution for the ongoing Kursk incursion.
"This is one of the most extensive deep strikes that the Russian side has conducted recently," Kunnas responded.
"On one hand, it is a routine matter for them to conduct strikes like this. This time simply the volume of ammunition deployed by the Russian side was larger than usual. The likelihood is that this is the strike that was expected, for independence day," Kunnas said.
As to the question whether the Russian attack had a specific target in mind, Kunnas explained: "This series of attacks is hard to determine."
"These targets have been very diverse, including for example in Kramatorsk - clearly a civilian hotel - which appears to have been a target from the beginning," the MP went on.
Civilians including foreign journalists were also present in that hotel during the strike.
"Exactly so, the launchers are quite exact, and they are among the hardest to down of all the various missiles and drones that the Russian side uses," Kunnas added.
As to what Ukraine has achieved in Kursk, Kunnas noted that the offensive there began on August 6, or three weeks ago now. "Really the offensive was itself done with within the first week. After that, troop movements have been relatively modest. The sector's breadth is about 40 kilometers, and its depth about 30 kilometers, which means that Ukrainian forces have advanced over a thousand square kilometers," he continued.
"This means that if we look at the overall situation this year, in terms of territory surrendered, liberated, or captured, both sides have been on the same scale: Ukraine has lost about 1,300 square kilometers or a bit more territory in Donbas since the beginning of the year," Kunnas went on.
The host asked what kind of resistance Ukraine has encountered in the Kursk offensive so far.
Kunnas said: "Ukraine's expectations are that the Russian side will pull troops away from decisive front lines."
"I have in mind the Toretsk and Pokrovske directions. So far as we know, this has not happened. There have been units brought in, but from far less important sectors, where there have been no movements on the front at all in the past year," he continued.
"The Russian side has been trying to use everything they have in hand, including Rosgvardiya, internal forces units, and conscript units; essentially trying to fight with whatever they had to hand." Kunnas said.
The host also asked whether Ukraine has achieved the foothold it wanted to, in Kursk.
Kunnas responded: "It is hard for me to say what Ukraine intended to achieve."
"If we consider the captured area as a bargaining leverage in negotiations, then this [Kursk] amount would not be enough. Perhaps 5,000 square kilometers would be required. This capture size has not yet reached that class. If we look at what Ukraine would need for a negotiating action, a much larger captured territory would be required to leverage that. Then again of course, if they continue to push the offensive further, that will require more and more troops," he continued.
Given the size of the area Ukraine has captured, it is unlikely that Ukraine can send additional reinforcements there, Kunnas added.
"Because of this, the situation over the past week has seen very few changes. Plus the Russian side has been trying to establish a more continuous front line, which was previously lacking, because the breakthrough was achieved within the first couple of days and on a fairly broad sector of the defensive lines on the Russian side, near the border," Kunnas noted.
What would have happened if the Russian's had anticipated the Ukrainian attack, on Kursk?
"Certainly, the Russian side was not prepared for this," Kunnas replied. "Looking at the Russian side's satellite images and drone capabilities, then they saw the movement or concentration of forces, but they clearly didn't take it seriously, most likely because they expected Ukraine to conduct similar strikes as last summer. But this time it was entirely different, and the Russian side was not prepared."
As the invader, Russia does not have many appropriate tactics for fighting on their own territory, so they are essentially resorting to wide-area strikes, he added. "In the same way, they are conducting these strikes on settlements which Ukrainian forces have captured, meaning they are striking their own villages and towns."
Finally, the host asked whether, in essence in the Kursk oblast, Russia is bombing Russia.
"Right now, yes," Kunnas concluded.
A British national, a former army officer working as a security adviser to newswire Reuters, was among those killed in Saturday's Russian strike on the Hotel Sapphire in Kramatorsk.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Valner Väino
Source: 'Ukraina stuudio'