Agency: Delivery times not the main reason munitions investment put back
Magnus-Valdemar Saar, director of the Estonian Center for Defense Investments (RKIK), told ERR in an interview that Estonia has asked the U.S. for permission to procure many times the previous number of far-firing ATACMS missiles, and that most of the additional munitions Estonia plans to procure could be delivered before 2031.
Saar said that Estonia should broadly use the €1.6 billion in additional defense funding to buy munitions for existing systems. "In places where we know that it would take a very long time to deliver these things, we need to come up with alternatives. Whether adopting new systems or procuring different types of munitions."
The RKIK director said that since buying munitions for Estonia's six HIMARS systems needs to happen through the U.S. government, the process takes time, and that debates today are rather centered around unmanned aerial vehicles and whether to buy more munitions for existing systems or diversify more broadly. "The Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) is working on an analysis and will tell us whether they simply need more of different types of ammunition, or whether new systems are also needed," Saar said.
Asked whether UAVs could replace ATACMS missiles, the RKIK head said that the EDF needs a mix of capabilities and rather both systems are needed.
Saar said that while Estonia should take delivery of the six HIMARS systems next year, it is not certain all of the already purchased ammunition will arrive in 2025 too. He added that Estonia now plans to procure three or four times as many different missiles for the HIMARS system as the U.S. Congress greenlit for the previous procurement. Estonia was previously allowed to buy around 100 missiles, some with a range of 150 kilometers, while these also included 18 ATACMS missiles, which have an effective range of 300 kilometers.
Magnus-Valdemar Saar added that Estonia plans to procure a lot more than three times the number of ATACMS previously ordered.
Asked when the additional HIMARS munitions could reach Estonia, the RKIK director said that while delivery of munitions with a range of 70 kilometers will be quite straightforward, things will be more complicated with ATACMS as it is an outgoing missile system.
"Our order would be substantial even for Lockheed Martin, and we don't know how such an order would impact their decision-making processes," Saar said, adding that it is too soon to go into detail.
"However, in the end, the EDF commander will tell me by when he needs something, which is what we will be proceeding from going after procurements. And if the EDF commander tells me that they need missiles that can hit targets 300 kilometers away by 2028, and if I cannot get ATACMS by then, I will have to look to alternatives.
Asked whether the government's 2031 deadline for long-range munitions procurements came down to manufacturers' ability to deliver or how much money Estonia has, Saar said the question needs to be put to politicians.
"What I can tell you is that delivery times are not the main reason the investment has been spread out over four years. There are other drivers at play – political, budgetary and others."
Saar added that air defense munitions would likely be the trickiest to procure in the sort perspective as pivoting to alternatives is difficult there. "The cost of replacing systems would be great," he noted.
While politicians have suggested waiting for new developments in the defense field to see whether some things could be procured cheaper or faster, Magnus-Valdemar Saar believes the decisions and commitments will be made sooner rather than later.
--
Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!
Editor: Urmet Kook, Marcus Turovski