The Estonian government has approved its position on the EU's proposal to reduce CO2 emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, on the condition that the necessary technology to achieve this target is available.

Isamaa party chair Urmas Reinsalu criticized the government's position, calling it "analytically immature." He urged the government to reassess the proposal from the perspective of Estonia's national interests and the broader competitiveness of both Estonia and Europe. According to Reinsalu, the proposal lacks sufficient impact analysis.

"There is no substantive analytical overview of what these green transition goals mean for us socially, in terms of societal resilience, the impact on businesses or the actual costs involved," Reinsalu said. He also questioned the government's condition that the goal depends on the availability of necessary technologies. "This vague reference to new technologies remains unclear, as noted by experts from Tallinn University of Technology in their feedback," Reinsalu added. He further argued that the EU already faces challenges in achieving its 2030 climate goals, making additional pressure for 2040 unwarranted.

When asked whether the Riigikogu committees might oppose the government's plan, Reinsalu expressed hope, adding that Isamaa intends to propose amendments to the government's position.

Epler: Europe will probably reverse its green policy

Rain Epler of the Conservative People's Party (EKRE), who sits on both the European Union Affairs Committee and the Environment Committee, doubted the feasibility of the EU's current green policies. "My prediction is that by the first half of next year, these goals will start being rolled back – unless Europe is led by people intent on making it an economic pariah," Epler said.

Epler noted that global powers like the U.S. and China are pursuing different strategies. "Changes in green policy are starting in the U.S., and China has been clear that they will continue to increase their carbon footprint until 2060 to achieve a stronger economic position," he stated. He also emphasized that Estonia's trajectory is tied to Europe's. "Estonia is so small that choosing a different path might be beneficial, but since Europe isn't changing its course, it's hard for us to position ourselves better through differentiation," he said.

Epler was critical of the Estonian government's conditional acceptance of the climate target. "Even if Estonia adds some minor conditions, they will ultimately disappear, leaving only the assent," he said. He also warned against "techno-utopianism," where politicians advocate for green transition goals while relying on the assumption that necessary technologies will eventually emerge.

While the Riigikogu European Union Affairs Committee (ELAK) has the authority to alter the government's position, Epler expressed doubt this would happen. "ELAK rarely changes government positions decisively, as the coalition has already decided on certain positions that are then rubber-stamped in the committee," he explained.

Laats: Oil shale as the guarantee of Estonia's energy security

The Center Party's Riigikogu whip Lauri Laats stated that Estonia's energy security depends on the use of oil shale.

"Considering all the energy policies currently being pursued, they don't really offer good answers. Many different institutions have pointed out that the approach is inadequate," Laats said, commenting on the EU's climate target proposal.

"When we talk about the green transition, we must consider that it will be very expensive for our people. What the economic impacts will be – nobody can predict," he added.

"If we are talking about true energy security, we must acknowledge that it is ensured by our natural resources, in this case, oil shale, especially in a scenario where we might one day be cut off from the rest of the world," Laats said.

"Of course, we must also take steps to reduce emissions, and with modern technology, this is achievable. All other solutions, however, are significantly more expensive. Our people will end up paying for these costly technologies, and that is fundamentally wrong," Laats concluded.

Aab: No time for a thorough analysis ahead of European Council meeting

The Economic Affairs Committee and Rural Affairs Committee held a joint session to discuss Estonia's agreement with the EU's 2040 climate target.

"This is a very extensive issue, and we had an hour and a half to listen and ask questions," said Jaak Aab (SDE), chair of the Economic Affairs Committee. "We heard a presentation from the Climate Ministry about Estonia's position, which was submitted by the government regarding the 2040 climate agreement within the EU."

Aab noted that representatives of business organizations, including the Estonian Employers' Confederation, the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises and the Chamber of Agriculture and Commerce, also presented their views. Their primary concern centered on the socioeconomic analysis of the proposal.

"There is also the upcoming draft law on climate-resilient economy, which aims to clarify what these targets mean for business sectors and individuals," Aab said. "The issue is twofold – there are questions for the European Commission, which must move forward with legislative documents after approving the communication, and for Estonia's ministries, regarding how they will handle these tasks. There is significant concern."

Aab highlighted fears expressed during the session about what could happen if obligations cannot be fulfilled. "The concern is that if very large commitments are made, which neither the EU as a whole nor Estonia can meet, it could become very costly for both individuals and businesses," he said. "The preference is for more thorough groundwork to be done while working toward these targets."

However, Aab acknowledged that conducting a detailed analysis before the European Council meeting is not possible. "Today, we were also asked about the direction our neighbors – Finland, Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland – are taking. All of them are emphasizing preliminary assessments because the European Council has yet to make a decision. The aim is to understand as precisely as possible what the impacts will be and to analyze them, as the communication is just the goal-setting phase. The subsequent legislative documents from the EU will address how to achieve these targets, which will also need to align with Estonia's future legislation," Aab explained.

"We still have the draft climate-resilient economy law ahead of us, where we will first deal with the 2030 targets," Aab added. "There were also questions about how the world or the EU has progressed toward these goals. We don't have solid summaries – our most recent detailed data is from 2020. However, the European Commission has promised to analyze how far we have come, either this year or next, before taking on new documents or commitments."

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