The Leis family is a household of three. "AK.Nädal" accompanied Anneli Leis as she shopped for groceries for the next couple of days. Nearly every time, the family's basket includes eggs and dairy products.

"See, it even says here these are from free-range hens. So I guess they are. €1.89 with the customer card, so — let's check if they're all intact. Though, they already seem more expensive. I remember when they used to cost €1.29 or €1.49. But, well, what's gone is gone," Leis commented on the product.

When it comes to dairy, the family has no strong brand preferences. They first check what's on sale. However, since price differences are often just a few cents, good taste usually guides the final choice.

"It's the same with cheese — we look for a promotion first, but there doesn't seem to be one right now. So then we try to recall recent taste experiences because the selection is enormous," Leis said.

She noted that the more you pay attention to the price per kilogram, the better off you are. "But promotions tend to change package sizes. So you grab a box all excited, only to find out, oh, it's 450 grams, not 500 anymore," she explained.

Anneli admitted she would gladly buy more fruits and vegetables to eat healthier, but rising prices have had an impact here, too.

"There was a time when a cucumber cost more than three loaves of bread, and you'd think, well, never mind then. Luckily, since I'm a good homemaker, we also preserve food ourselves. So I've been using more of our pickled cucumbers and tomatoes. But let's be honest — fresh always tastes better," she said.

This time, her basket included a cucumber from Greece, marked down with a red discount label. Having already planned the next couple of days' meals in her head, she still needed a few essentials: tomatoes, lemon, chicken, minced meat, sour cream and a few odds and ends. The grocery trip had a budget of €35, but even with customer card discounts, the total came to €40.57.

"I actually held back. I know payday is still a little ways off and I need to stretch my grocery money. When I go for a bigger shop that includes hygiene products and household cleaners, the bill easily climbs toward €100. And then you look at it and think, wow, it's like I just came back from a trip abroad," Leis said.

In February, food sales volumes dropped by 5 percent compared to the same month last year. In March, the decline was 7 percent. April's figure will likely be even higher. In short, people are clearly buying less food.

"Impulse purchases — things you don't need every day, like mozzarella or other specialty cheeses — those are being skipped. Maybe I'll get them on payday. The same goes for treats like chocolate-covered curd snacks. Categories that usually end up in the basket as a little indulgence rather than a necessity," said Jaanika Terasmaa, head of sales and marketing at Maxima.

"If I compare the length of receipts, they've shrunk by 10 to 15 percent. To be precise, back in the early 2020s, the average receipt listed 9 to 10 items. Now, it's about eight — one item bought elsewhere, another left out altogether," added Kristjan Anderson, head of business accounting at Selver.

Just like Anneli's basket had some cheaper foreign products, retailers confirm that more imported items are on the shelves to offer customers more affordable choices.

"Big picture, Estonian food still holds about the same market share as in the early 2020s. But two categories are pulling it down the most: eggs and butter. Three years ago, one out of every ten butter packages wasn't from an Estonian producer. Today, it's three out of ten. The domestic market share has dropped from over 90 percent to 70 percent," said Anderson.

Janne Laik-Lõhmus, product development and marketing director at food industry firm Maag Group, said the recent hike in energy excise taxes has hit them the hardest. For fresh meat, which consumers prefer to buy locally, high input costs have had a major impact.

"When energy costs affect product pricing and you've got your own farms or a feed factory in Loo, that raw material is already more expensive. Honestly, we'd love to sometimes offer a more competitive price by importing raw materials from Lithuania or Poland. But we can't — we have our own birds and livestock," Laik-Lõhmus said.

"Of course, I'd like to support domestic production and everything that comes with it, but I simply can't afford to," Anneli Leis added.

While the recession hasn't caused any products to completely disappear from the shelves, product ranges have narrowed slightly.

"For example, we're not launching marinated beef tenderloin as a new product. We're introducing marinated chicken thighs instead because the price difference is so large. People still want to eat. We're also doing more product development with smaller packaging sizes or, when it comes to meat, more affordable cuts," said Laik-Lõhmus.

And price hikes aren't over yet. Experts warn that the simultaneous increases in fuel excise tax and VAT coming in early July will have a significant impact. Negotiations between producers and retailers over the new prices are already underway.

"From January to the end of April, Maxima has received nearly 1,000 price increase requests from suppliers. That means a very complicated process lies ahead to negotiate those increases down," said Terasmaa.

Anderson noted that Selver doesn't plan to change any prices before July 1. "But we're also not planning to leave prices unchanged after that. Expect an increase of about 1.6 percent," he said.

"I really don't want to think about what's coming. I just can't. I'll wait and see. It's going to be tough, for sure. I actually think, since I also work in customer service, that shoplifting is going to rise. And hearing this and that from people I know, I get the feeling there might also be more moments when people just give up on things," Anneli Leis said.

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