"I would summarize this document with the phrase: 'They want to fly, but not especially high.' The directions and ideas themselves seem right, but if we think about the sectors — like healthcare, public transport, education — then, even though this government has declared within its coalition agreement that they want to be right-wing rulers, there's actually no such ideological shift emerging from that," Lumi went on, referring to measures which are on the right economically speaking.

"It's clear that a range of ideas have been discussed, but they have not been fully articulated, somehow. It also has a bit too much of a bureaucratic 'face.' That kind of a classic political nature doesn't really show through much," he added.

"You can see that the interest groups have come together, but in reality these matters haven't been decisively shaped into a political direction," noted Lumi.

The agreement also lacks originality and ambition, Lumi added. "That is one thing I would highlight."

At the same time, Lumi found that national defense has rather received more attention to be a positive thing. Another positive direction, Lumi pointed to was work by a bureaucracy-cutting task force, convened by the prime minister.

Nevertheless, the agreement does not show any long-term decisions, Lumi found.

In speaking about how long the current government coalition might survive, Lumi said that this largely depends on Eesti 200's fortunes. "Will they hold up? Especially looking toward the autumn, the question arises — what will happen to them after the elections. That is the key issue," Lumi said.

"There isn't that much time until the general elections either. I don't think another government will emerge. One way or another, the Reform Party's view is that they will remain in power throughout this governmental term. I don't predict any major change there," Lumi concluded.

Eesti 200 has Riigikogu 13 seats, down one on the 14 it won at the 2023 election, but has consistently performed very poorly in ratings by three separate major pollsters in Estonia, over recent months.

Reform alone has 38 seats at the 101-seat chamber.

The local elections take place in October and are often seen as a type of "mid-term" ahead of the next Riigikogu election, which in this case will be in 2027.
Reform and Eesti 200 ejected the Social Democrats (SDE) from office in March, triggering the need for a new coalition agreement as well as a cabinet reshuffle.

The two parties had a provisional framework agreement in place in the intervening time.

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