If suitable candidates still need to be found, parties will start scrambling like a lazy student with a thesis due. It is difficult to organize meaningful public consideration in such a short time.

It is worth recalling a bit of history: in July 2006, newspaper Postimees published then-candidate Toomas Hendrik Ilves' essay "Seven Principles of Presidential Culture." One of those principles was the idea that an incumbent president should announce no later than February 24 of their final year in office whether they intend to seek a second term. "Such a custom would significantly improve our political culture, giving time for thorough debate and consideration of candidates," Ilves wrote.

I do not want to directly compare the 2006 and 2026 elections, as today's political landscape is very different and the election rules have changed. But the question of whether the sitting president will seek a second term was crucial then and has completely dominated this year's pre-election coverage as well.

In 2006, the issue was so important that several newspapers published a joint statement in January titled "Estonia Needs Clarity," urging President Arnold Rüütel to publicly announce whether he would run again in the autumn or step aside. "Compressing the campaign into an extremely short period, postponing it until autumn, would primarily serve those who want to make decisions without paying deeper attention to public opinion," wrote the editors-in-chief of Eesti Ekspress, Postimees, Sakala and others.

I helped edit that statement at the time and now believe — 20 years later — that publishing it was not a particularly wise move. First, the media should not intervene so directly in a campaign; its role is to cover events, not shape them. Second, the statement did not speed anything up. Ilves effectively became a candidate on March 23, when the Reform Party confirmed his nomination, while Rüütel was formally nominated by the People's Union on June 18.

This year, the incumbent president's decision became public even later on June 23. Reading Alar Karis' explanation, which is largely personal in nature, it seems that if Karis had kept Ilves' old principle in mind, the search for strong candidates could already be in its final stage as summer begins.

The current situation reminds me of a scene from the British political sitcom "Yes, Minister" by Jonathan Lynn and Antony Jay, where MP Jim Hacker says: "I've been sitting by the phone since breakfast." The poor fictional politician could not even help his wife prepare lunch because "I'm waiting for a call."

Fortunately, phones are no longer attached to the wall, so all the good potential candidates — Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise, EU official Maive Rute, EU diplomat Riina Kionka, Estonian diplomat Jüri Luik, EU foreign service deputy chief Matti Maasikas (a list borrowed from entrepreneur and author Tiit Pruuli's post in social media) — can simply go about their daily lives. Today, you don't even need to call; you can just click send: "The votes are there!"

The situation becomes trickier when the votes are not there. In August 2021, President Kersti Kaljulaid clearly stated she was ready to run for a second term. But the job offer went instead to Alar Karis, who ran in the Riigikogu and secured enough votes after two rounds.

The last two times, Estonia's president has been chosen in the Riigikogu and both times the winner has been a compromise candidate — someone not too objectionable to too many people. Many commentators consider the chances of electing the president in the Riigikogu this year close to zero, but if it does happen, the candidate will likely be of a similar type. A day-to-day political figure with a polarizing reputation will not become president through the Riigikogu.

If the process moves to the Electoral College, the outcome becomes far less predictable — but that discussion is only meaningful if the Riigikogu produces no result.

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